国信期货油脂周报：美生柴政策利好落地，美豆油震荡走高-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US soybean oil increased significantly, while the price of Malaysian palm oil declined relatively. Affected by this, the price of domestic oils dropped significantly, with rapeseed oil experiencing the largest decline [6]. - The market anticipates that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decrease, ending the consecutive 10 - month growth trend due to seasonal production decline and increased exports [11]. - The new US 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule has boosted the market's optimistic expectations for the demand outlook of US soybean oil [6]. - Next week, the MPOB and USDA reports are due. The market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect palm oil production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern, while the domestic oil market is weaker and awaits the guidance of the two key reports [62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 3.1.1 Oil Market Review - This week, the US dollar and international crude oil prices dropped at the beginning of the week, putting pressure on US soybean oil. However, after the US Treasury issued the 45Z proposed rule, the price of US soybean oil soared, with two consecutive days of about 2% growth. On Thursday, international crude oil prices fell sharply, and US soybean oil oscillated at a high level [6]. - The price of Malaysian palm oil declined. At the beginning of the week, a collective plunge in commodities led to panic selling by long - position holders. Although supported by rising surrounding oils and the possible decline in January inventory, it still oscillated within a narrow lower range due to falling international crude oil prices and inventory pressure [6]. - Domestic oils dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of about 3%. Rapeseed oil led the decline due to increased supply pressure after the entry of Australian rapeseed into the crushing process. Subsequently, Dalian soybean oil and Dalian palm oil followed the downward trend. In the following days, the domestic oil market oscillated around the lowest point on Monday [6]. 3.1.2 Recent International Oil Information - In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 14.9% - 17.9%. The production in South Malaysia decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, and the estimated production in Malaysia decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons [10]. - Analysts expect the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January to drop to 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% from the end of December. The production in January is estimated to be 1.62 million tons, a 11.5% decrease from December, and exports are estimated to be 1.42 million tons, a 7.6% increase from December [11]. - Indonesia will ban the export of palm oil waste, aiming to ensure domestic demand and promote energy self - sufficiency [11]. - The US IRS issued the 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule, with a 60 - day public comment period and a hearing scheduled for May 28, 2026. The policy is applicable until December 31, 2029 [12]. - As of December 31, 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.179 billion pounds, a 0.7% increase from the end of November and a 29.2% increase from the end of December 2024, but lower than market expectations [13]. - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol - blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 but has to postpone the plan due to limited ethanol supply [13]. - From February 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the same period last month [13]. 3.1.3 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease, and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease [29]. - Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5,100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; the edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease, and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; the rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease, and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [29]. 3.1.4 Oil Basis Analysis - The report presents the basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and different contract months, showing the basis trends over time [34][37][41]. 3.1.5 Oil - to - Oil Futures Spread Relationship - This week, the overall oil price trend was soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded [46]. 3.1.6 Oil Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil slightly declined, while the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil had limited fluctuations [49]. 3.2 Part 2: Future Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - The report presents the seasonal indices of domestic and international soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal, showing their price trends and seasonal characteristics throughout the year [54][56][59]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - Technical Level (Main Contracts): For soybean oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined; for palm oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bullish; for rapeseed oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all intertwined [61]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, geopolitical risks are high, and international crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. If the price of international crude oil stays above $60 per barrel, it will boost biodiesel production. The MPOB and USDA reports are due next week, and the market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern. Domestically, the oil market is weaker than the international market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot sales have stagnated, and the futures market mainly follows the international oil market. Capital is leaving the market before the festival, and the market may find support at the lower end of the range, waiting for the guidance of the two key reports [62].