国信期货生猪周报：供增而需弱，生猪市场走低-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the live hog spot price rebounded and then declined due to increased slaughter by large enterprises and poor slaughter demand during the peak season. The live hog futures also weakened. The near - month 03 contract was significantly affected by the spot price decline and post - festival off - season expectations, while the far - month contracts were boosted by the policy expectations triggered by the No. 1 Central Document's mention of regulating live hog production capacity and showed relative resilience. The national basis mostly weakened, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts also decreased [7]. - Although the average slaughter weight is seasonally declining, the absolute level is still higher year - on - year, indicating that the live inventory is difficult to effectively digest during the pre - festival peak season, and the inventory pressure will continue into the post - festival period. According to the piglet birth data, the theoretical supply of standard hogs will remain high until May, which will continuously suppress the pig price [7]. - In the long run, commercial institution data shows that the pace of culling of sows has slowed down due to the rising piglet prices, and the industry re - balance still needs time [7]. - For the March futures contract, considering the post - festival off - season factors and possible inventory reduction pressure, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. For the May contract, although the theoretical supply may improve marginally, the overall supply is still at a high level. Given that its price is below the cost and there is uncertainty about post - festival second - fattening impulses, it is expected to fluctuate. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction at low levels, but the upside space is limited by the small amplitude of production capacity reduction. In terms of operation, the near - end should be treated weakly, and for the far - end, opportunities for band - trading long positions in the undervalued range should be grasped [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Live hog spot price rebounded and then declined, futures weakened. The near - month 03 contract had a large decline, and the far - month contracts were relatively resilient. The basis and near - far month spread weakened. The inventory pressure will continue into the post - festival period, and the supply of standard hogs will be high until May. The culling of sows has slowed down. Different futures contracts have different outlooks, and corresponding operation strategies are proposed [7]. 2. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price decline: At the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not initiated when the third - level early warning of excessive price decline is issued; they are initiated at the discretion when the second - level early warning is issued; and they are initiated when the first - level early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice [65]. - In case of excessive price increase: The central frozen pork reserve release has two starting conditions. In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve release is initiated when the second - level early warning of excessive price increase is issued and the release intensity is increased when the first - level early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and after the first - level early warning is issued, releases are mainly organized during key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release starting conditions, which should not be higher than the central reserve release starting conditions [62].