双焦：煤矿陆续放假，现货成交趋于冷清

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, coking coal futures have fluctuated significantly due to news about Indonesian coal policies, with trading mainly driven by sentiment and funds. The substantial impact remains to be observed. The actual implementation of Indonesia's coal - related policies has been poor in recent years, and it is expected that the reduction of coal production this time will also be less effective in practice. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Indonesian coal - related policies [4]. - Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage and replenishment are almost over. Next week, coal mines will enter the peak period of shutdown and holiday. Downstream transportation is mainly based on previous orders, and prices tend to be stable. The transaction of imported Mongolian coal at ports is also gradually cooling down. In the futures market, the weight of fundamentals has decreased, the trading main line is not clear, and it is expected that the fluctuations will still be large, but there are no trend - based opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the price will still fluctuate greatly, but there are no trend - based opportunities. It is recommended to focus on band trading, and cautious investors are advised to wait and see. In subsequent operations, one can continue to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices after a callback [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Coking coal market: - Spot price: This week, the spot prices of coking coal in the production areas have risen and fallen. The price of Mongolian coal has fluctuated greatly following the futures market. Downstream coking and steel enterprises have basically completed their winter storage and replenishment and have shifted to rigid - demand procurement. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market transactions are gradually cooling down, and prices are stabilizing [9]. - Domestic supply: This week, the production capacity utilization rate of coal mines has declined, and some coal mines have started to shut down for holidays. The production capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines is 86.67% (- 2.46%). As the Spring Festival approaches, next week will be the peak period for coal mines to shut down for holidays. The average holiday duration is 10.1 days, slightly less than last year [9]. - Imported Mongolian coal: This week, the daily average number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased by 215 compared to the previous week. It is expected that the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal will remain at a moderately high level next week, and the port inventory still faces certain pressure. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the Spring Festival in 2026, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17 - 20), and will also be closed on February 15 and February 22 (Sundays) [9]. - Demand: This week, the coke production has been basically stable. The total coke production is 110.38 (+ 0.53) tons. It is expected that the coke production will remain basically stable next week, with small fluctuations [9]. - Inventory: This week, the total coking coal inventory is 4385.1 (+ 67.1) tons. The inventory of coking coal mines, ports, and Mongolian coal ports has decreased slightly, while the inventory of downstream coking plants has increased [9]. - Coke market: - Spot price: The first round of coke price increase was implemented last week, and this week, the coke price has remained stable. Currently, the coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is difficult for the coke price to continue to rise. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week [10]. - Supply: This week, the coke production has been basically stable. The total coke production is 110.38 (+ 0.53) tons. It is expected that the coke production will remain basically stable next week, with small fluctuations [10]. - Demand: This week, the hot metal production has increased slightly. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 228.58 (+ 0.60) tons. It is expected that the hot metal production will remain basically stable in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and attention should be paid to the recovery speed of steel mills' hot metal production after the Spring Festival [10]. - Inventory: This week, the total coke inventory is 1042.8 (+ 17.2) tons. The inventory of coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports has increased [10]. - Profit: According to Steelhome data, the average profit per ton of coke nationwide is - 10 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is 12 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 45 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia is - 47 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 40 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Coking coal production: This week, the verified production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.7%, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the previous week. The daily average production of raw coal is 192.5 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons compared to the previous week. The raw coal inventory is 546.9 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons compared to the previous week. The daily average production of clean coal is 75.5 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons compared to the previous week. The clean coal inventory is 264.7 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons compared to the previous week [13]. - Imported Mongolian coal customs clearance: The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at ports has fluctuated at a high level. During the Spring Festival, the ports will be closed for four days [15]. - Hot metal production: The hot metal production has been fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of hot metal production after the Spring Festival [20]. - Price data: Includes domestic coking coal prices, imported coking coal prices, coke prices, coking coal basis, coke basis, coking coal monthly spreads, and coke monthly spreads, etc., which are presented in the form of charts [27][30][37] etc. - Inventory data: Includes coking coal inventory (coking coal mines, ports, coking enterprises, and steel mills), coke inventory (coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports), etc., which are presented in the form of charts [96][99][102] etc.