聚酯链日报：PX&PTA预期兑现，节前回归现实谨慎看待-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the expectations for PX and PTA have been realized, and a cautious approach should be taken as the market returns to reality before the holiday. Overall, PX prices may continue to decline, while PTA may stabilize or experience a slight rebound due to improving demand [1][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - PTA & PX: On February 5th, the PX main contract closed at 7,200.0 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -203.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5,144.0 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The cost side shows that the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.95 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 64.47 US dollars/barrel. The demand side indicates that the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 7.702 million meters [3]. - Supply - side: PX supply is expected to remain loose, with limited device maintenance plans and continuous supply pressure. For PTA, there are no obvious disturbance signals in the operating rate, the device operates stably, but price adjustments and basis narrowing indicate a possible marginal increase in supply. The overall supply environment is neutral, with no significant contraction signs [4]. - Demand - side: Polyester demand shows a warming trend. The operating rate is expected to benefit from the downstream recovery. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City has exceeded the recent average, reflecting the recovery of terminal textile orders, which may boost polyester consumption and support PTA demand. The improvement on the demand side will partially buffer the downward pressure on costs and turn the market sentiment of PTA positive [4]. - Inventory - side: PTA factory inventory may be in a moderate destocking stage. After the current price adjustment, the basis has strengthened, indicating the resilience of spot demand and controllable inventory pressure. If the demand side continues to improve, inventory is expected to be further digested, providing bottom support for prices [4]. - Polyester: On February 5th, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,564.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,555.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of -9.0 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City (MA15) is stable in the range of 7.7 - 7.76 million meters, showing stable but no significant growth in terminal demand. The inventory of various polyester products is lower than the average of the past five years, and the inventory of DTY and POY has decreased week - on - week, reflecting low inventory pressure. Low inventory and stable demand may support prices, but the risks of increased supply and weak demand may limit the upside space [4][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.32%, the trading volume decreased by 7.26%, and the open interest decreased by 4.28%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.14%. The PX basis increased by 32.11% [6]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 1.42%, the trading volume decreased by 17.03%, and the open interest decreased by 1.47%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 108.82%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.45%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 166.67%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 10.71%, and the import profit decreased by 0.65% [6]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.06%, the trading volume increased by 62.58%, and the open interest increased by 100.10%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.30%. The PF basis decreased by 160.00%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45.00%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 58.33%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 89.29% [6]. - Other products: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, while the prices of CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged. The processing spreads of most products remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [6][7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Macro - dynamics: On February 5th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Department of Labor resumed normal full - scale operation on February 4th, non - farm payrolls will be released on February 11th, and CPI data will be released on February 13th. On the same day, an expert seminar on the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Gold Industry (Discussion Draft)" was held in Beijing. On February 4th, Federal Reserve officials made statements about interest - rate cuts and inflation control [7][8]. - Supply - and - demand - demand: On February 5th, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.69%, with 6.38 million meters of long - fiber fabric transactions and 1.82 million meters of short - fiber fabric transactions [9]. 3.4 Future Price Trend Judgment - Supply - side: PX supply may remain loose, with stable operating rates and no major device changes assumed. PTA supply shows that the devices are operating normally, and there are no significant changes in the operating rate [43][44][52]. - Demand - side: There are significant signs of improvement in polyester demand. The increase in the transaction volume of the Light Textile City indicates the recovery of downstream demand, which may drive PTA consumption [38][44][53]. - Inventory - side: PTA factory inventory may be relatively balanced. After the price adjustment, it may attract restocking demand, and the inventory pressure is limited [44][54].