瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260206

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the urea market by Ruida Futures Research Institute, covering the week up to February 6, 2026 [2] - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan in the short - term [6] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - The domestic urea market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1750 - 1800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - Some previously shut - down plants resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. Next week, 4 - 5 shut - down plants may resume, and the output increase is expected to expand [7] - Agricultural demand continued to advance, and pre - holiday reserve demand from terminals and trading enterprises increased. Industrial demand maintained rigid procurement. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers increased this week but may decline as the Spring Festival approaches [7] - Domestic urea enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week. As the Spring Festival approaches, inventories may rise, weakening support for the urea market [7] Group 3: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.78% [12] - As of February 6, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 38 [14] - As of February 6, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, a decrease of 1,830 from last week [22] Group 4: Spot Market - As of February 5, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [28] - As of February 5, the FOB price of urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton from last week [32] - As of February 5, the urea basis was 2 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week [36] Group 5: Upstream Market - As of February 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [40] - As of February 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.52 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.35 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40] Group 6: Industry Situation - As of February 4, China's urea production was 1.4692 million tons, up 14,310 tons (0.98% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 89.14%, up 0.87% [43] - As of February 4, China's urea port inventory was 165,000 tons, up 21,000 tons (14.58% week - on - week), and enterprise inventory was 918,500 tons, down 26,300 tons (2.79% week - on - week) [46] - In December 2025, urea exports were 278,300 tons, down 53.75% month - on - month [49] Group 7: Downstream Market - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.79%, up 0.45 percentage points week - on - week, and is expected to decline in the next period [54] - As of February 4, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, down 8.5 percentage points from last week [54]