棉花周报：郑棉转为窄幅震荡，节前资金流出-20260206

Report Summary - Report Title: Zheng Cotton Turns to Narrow - Range Fluctuation, Funds Flow Out Before the Festival - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - Report Date: February 6, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Domestically, Zheng Cotton showed significantly reduced volatility and narrow - range fluctuations this week. With new cotton processing nearing completion, supply pressure is high. However, yarn prices remained stable or increased while cotton prices fell, and the downstream industry faced limited pressure. Zheng Cotton is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations with a limited range, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival [56]. - Internationally, U.S. cotton export data is strong, with stable old - crop exports and record - high new - crop exports. Consumption has overall resilience. But macro factors may have some suppression, such as a weak global economy and a strong U.S. dollar. U.S. cotton is in a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - Futures Prices: Zheng Cotton had a slight weekly decline of 0.61%, and ICE cotton had a weekly decline of 2.09% [12]. - Spot Prices: The cotton price index declined this week. The 3128 index dropped 171 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index dropped 158 yuan/ton [17]. - Import Situation: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [22]. - Inventory Situation: - In the first half of January, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.8623 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory - building phase [27]. - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [32]. - Yarn Prices: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S remained flat, the price of C32S increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of JC40S remained flat [37]. - Zhengshang Institute Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 410. There were 10,500 warehouse receipts and 1,283 effective forecasts, totaling 11,783 [42]. - U.S. Cotton Export Situation: As of January 29, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 248,300 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 114,900 bales [50]. - U.S. Weather Situation: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 37.4%, with different drought - level percentages in each category [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic Market: Zheng Cotton will maintain short - term fluctuations, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival due to high supply pressure but limited downstream pressure [56]. - International Market: U.S. cotton will maintain a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases despite macro suppression [56].