白糖周报：上方承压，郑糖节前波动区间收窄-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined and then rebounded this week, with a narrow - range fluctuation. The production side has high pressure due to the increasing production pattern. Although the sales data in January was good due to Spring Festival stocking, the spot market became quiet after stocking ended, and sugar price support is limited. With the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain volatile in the short term [57]. - Internationally, the international sugar market is testing the low - level support and is still suppressed by supply. India's production is strong but exports may be limited. Thailand's production may fall short of expectations due to disasters. In the EU, the beet planting area may decline by 5% due to low sugar prices. The Dubai Sugar Conference has a somewhat positive impact. Crude oil's long - term upward trend may support raw sugar. The international sugar market is in a low - level oscillation with limited downside space [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. ICE sugar futures prices fluctuated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.14% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - No specific text description provided, only data sources are mentioned [12]. 3.1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No specific text description provided, only data sources are mentioned [17]. 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In December, sugar imports were 580,000 tons, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar March contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,019 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,090 yuan per ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand is 4,078 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,166 yuan per ton [21]. 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in December was about 2.11 million tons, an increase of 206,000 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 14,719, an increase of 402 compared with last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 14,374, and the number of valid forecasts was 345 [33]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of December, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%, and the sugar production was 40.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [37]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.82%, compared with 48.16% in the same period last year [42]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In January, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0175 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [47]. 3.1.10 International Main - producing Region Weather Conditions - Brazil's main producing areas have abundant rainfall, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. India has little precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane crushing [53][54]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain volatile in the short term. Internationally, the international sugar market is in a low - level oscillation with limited downside space [57].