热卷日报：震荡下跌-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume, breaking below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline [1][6]. - Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Friday, the open interest of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 10,036 lots, with a trading volume of 276,669 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,250 yuan, and the high was 3,270 yuan. The daily moving averages showed a short-term decline below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan or 0.43% [1]. - Spot Price: The hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -1 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1103 million tons. This week's output was at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4]. - Demand: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 0.0587 million tons to 3.0554 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.0811 million tons. Mainly affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand from downstream manufacturing industries declined, but the overall level was still at a relatively high level in recent years, showing certain resilience [4]. - Inventory: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 0.0362 million tons to 3.592 million tons (the social inventory increased by 0.0212 million tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 0.015 million tons). The pressure was concentrated on social inventory, and the steel mill inventory was controllable. The steel mill inventory pressure was extremely low, and the social inventory increased significantly, reflecting the inventory backlog in the circulation link and the low willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish Factors: Steel mill复产 exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures contract declined with reduced trading volume today, breaking below the short-term 5-day, medium-term 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, reaching a one-month low with no sign of a stop in the decline. Fundamentally, the current supply is relatively stable, and the demand shows strong resilience despite a decline mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level, mainly due to the high pressure on social inventory, and the inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations and the inventory depletion speed after the Spring Festival [6].