PP日报：震荡运行-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5%. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the United States has reduced the tariffs imposed on India, and Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of the downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving decreased, and its new orders were limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal factories are on holiday, and the downstream stocking is mostly completed. The improvement of the PP supply-demand pattern is limited, the spot price followed up limitedly at the end of January, but there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity put into operation for plastics recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch films has not started yet. It is expected that the L-PP spread will decline. The market fluctuates greatly, so pay attention to risk control [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5%. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the United States has reduced the tariffs imposed on India, and Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of the downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving decreased, and its new orders were limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal factories are on holiday, and the downstream stocking is mostly completed. The improvement of the PP supply-demand pattern is limited, the spot price followed up limitedly at the end of January, but there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity put into operation for plastics recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch films has not started yet. It is expected that the L-PP spread will decline. The market fluctuates greatly, so pay attention to risk control [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,607 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,708 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume decreased by 14,114 lots to 483,821 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6,310 - 6,830 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased by 0.5 million tons to 42.5 million tons week-on-week, 8 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $68 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week-on-week [5]