原油日报：原油震荡运行-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current oil market is in a state of oversupply, but due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continue to decline. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress. The restoration of production at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been delayed. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Winter is the off-season for crude oil demand, but due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have decreased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to decline. However, global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply. The latest EIA monthly report in January has raised the surplus range for 2026. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arabian light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and Trump has announced a reduction in "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may increase its crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE have not made substantial progress. The Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will resume half of its production capacity by February 7. The repeated Iranian geopolitical situation has caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 0.37% to 465.4 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 454.4 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 470.0 yuan per ton, and an open interest decrease of 5297 to 16308 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side - The latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels per day [4].