沥青日报：震荡上行-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Next week, some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical will resume asphalt production, and the low - level asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1] - Demand side: This week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. After the price increase in Shandong, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level again. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.92% to 3,386 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,324 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,412 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,731 to 83,176 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]