尿素日报：弱稳运行-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak and stable state, mainly due to the game between downstream holiday shutdown and upstream holiday order absorption. Before the Spring Festival, it will mainly maintain a weak and stable state. After the Spring Festival, as it gradually enters the peak farming season, the downstream demand for urea will reach the peak of the year. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved high today, with a decline at the end of the session. The market is mainly stable, and holiday orders have not been fully filled. The ex - factory quotes for small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices. The fundamentals are stable, with factories mainly fulfilling previous pending orders. The daily output has reached 210,000 tons, with few shutdown plans and many restart plans on the agenda. If there is no positive news, the spot is expected to reduce prices to attract orders. [1][3] - The compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, but the increase is limited before the holiday. The inventory data continues to decrease, mainly due to agricultural pick - up. It is expected that inventory will be depleted before the Spring Festival, and there will be an increase during the holiday. [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1775 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, and closed down at the end of the session, finally closing at 1776 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.17%. The trading volume was 221,626 lots (-1,184 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 578 lots, and short positions decreased by 875 lots. [2] - On February 6, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, an increase of 25 compared to the previous trading day. [2] Spot - The market is mainly stable today, and holiday orders have not been fully filled. The ex - factory quotes for small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices. [1][3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price has decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis has strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the May contract is -16 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton). [6] Supply - On February 6, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210,000 tons, the same as yesterday, with an operating rate of 85.26%. [7] Inventory and Orders - As of February 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.79%. The pre - sale order days were 8.82 days, an increase of 2.23 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 33.84%. [12] Downstream - From January 30 to February 6, the compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to last week. The average weekly production capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points compared to last week. [14]