铁矿日报：商品情绪走弱，期现价格承压-20260206

Report Summary of Iron Ore Daily by Guantong Futures 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show a decrease in arrivals, alleviating supply pressure. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and although ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts present a back structure and a futures discount under a positive basis. After a short - term breakdown, it shows a certain weakness [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures Prices: The main contract of iron ore futures maintained a weak downward trend, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 1.04% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 515,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.612 billion yuan. After the breakdown, it remained weak, with attention on further tests around 750 [1]. - Spot Prices: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 2 to 770 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 2 to 665 yuan/ton. The main swap was at 99.3 (-1.3) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - Basis and Spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 807.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46.7 yuan/ton, showing little change. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 18 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan. Iron ore was slightly weak in the short - term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery in Brazilian shipments. The arrivals continued to decline, as the previous drop in shipments was reflected in arrivals. There were expectations of supply disruptions due to weather. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability weakened, and the rigid demand was stable. As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills accelerated restocking, and as restocking progressed, the support for prices might gradually weaken. In terms of inventory, ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory at berth decreased, and steel mill inventories increased significantly. The total inventory pressure was still building up. Market sentiment weakened, and both futures and spot prices were under pressure [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The positive policy expectation continues as the macro - mainline, and the expectation of policy intensification in the first quarter to achieve an economic "good start" in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan" is strengthening. The overall policy environment is favorable, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3]. - Overseas: One of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but the impact on the market is expected to be limited. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to the two high - uncertainty risk events of the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [3].