玻璃日报：短期震荡-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the glass industry is volatile [1] Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between "supply contraction expectations" (due to cold repairs and policies) and "weak actual demand" (caused by the sluggish real - estate market and seasonal off - peak seasons). High inventory is the biggest pressure for the price rebound. Although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. In the short term, the glass market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass main contract opened and closed lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightens, indicating short - term volatility. The pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 294,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 6,827 lots. The intraday high was 1083, the low was 1064, and the closing price was 1072, down 20 yuan/ton or 1.83% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: In North China, the market is stable with overall sales slowing down as the industry gradually takes holidays. In East China, there are few changes, with stable prices and slowing sales. In Central China, the market operates steadily, with middle - and downstream enterprises focusing on collecting payments. In South China, the market remains stable for now, with most downstream enterprises finishing their work and the trading atmosphere weakening [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China is 1020, and the basis is - 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5th, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0558 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.16%. The average operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. Two production lines of Dongtai Zhongbo with a designed capacity of 600 tons each were shut down today [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 500,000 weight boxes or 0.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.35 days, a week - on - week decrease of 31.9% and a year - on - year increase of 323.3%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere has significantly weakened, and orders from deep - processing factories in all regions have declined [2] - Import and Export: In December 2025, the domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% from the same period last year [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fired float glass was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.85 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of coal - gas - fired float glass was - 67.92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.58 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke - fired float glass was 43.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42.86 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction in the glass market is the game between supply contraction expectations (cold repairs and policies) and weak actual demand (real - estate downturn and seasonal off - peak). High inventory is the main pressure for price rebound. Real - estate demand has not improved, and although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction remains. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are finishing work, and the market sentiment is weak. So the glass market weakened intraday and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]