PVC日报：震荡下行-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that PVC will fluctuate within a range. The supply side shows an increase in PVC开工率, while the demand side is affected by the real - estate adjustment and the approaching Spring Festival. Although there are factors such as the potential for post - Spring Festival policies and maintenance, the market is still complex. PVC price fluctuations are large, and cautious operation is recommended [1] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC开工率 has increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream PVC开工率 has decreased by 3.33 percentage points due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. There is a phenomenon of rush - export in the market, and the export orders of domestic PVC continue to increase month - on - month. Social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real - estate market still takes time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, but the current production decline is limited. The PVC开工率 is expected to continue to increase slightly next week. February is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC, and the spot trading is light [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 4941 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5038 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4981 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 2.18%. The position decreased by 28,528 lots to 1,096,311 lots [2] - Basis: On February 6, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4770 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4981 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 211 yuan/ton, weakening by 19 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by devices such as Shandong Hengtong and Henan Yuhang, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%. New production capacities of several companies, including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua, have been put into production or are in trial production [4] - Demand side: The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of commercial housing all showed year - on - year declines. As of the week of February 1, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 22.42% month - on - month, but it was still at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of February 5, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.71% month - on - month to 1.227 million tons, 63.28% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6]