沪铜日报：承压整理-20260206

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The US - Iran geopolitical situation is unclear, market risk - aversion and panic persist, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals have performed poorly in recent days. During the demand vacuum period, the fundamentals are temporarily weak. Therefore, Shanghai copper is mainly under pressure and consolidating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - From February 9, 2026 (Monday) closing settlement, the daily price limit range of listed copper contracts will be adjusted to 10%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions to 11%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions to 12% [1]. - In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0012 million tons (0.10%) and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. In February, no smelters are scheduled for maintenance, but the production in February will still be affected by the end - of - January maintenance of some smelters. It is expected that the output will decrease by 0.0358 million tons (3.04%) month - on - month and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [1]. - The high copper price in January suppressed copper demand. Downstream buyers mainly made rigid purchases, and the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end. The terminal new energy market performed poorly due to purchase tax issues, while other traditional industries and the power industry remained resilient [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 2% [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 60 yuan/ton. On February 5, 2026, the LME official price was $12,905/ton, and the spot premium was - $83/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $50.3/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a decrease of 507 tons from the previous period. As of February 5, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 89,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 180,600 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 586,400 short tons, an increase of 2,245 short tons from the previous period [13].