纯碱日报：短期震荡-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term shock [1] Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of soda ash is still the continuous accumulation of inventory caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the pattern of supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not improved. The continuously increasing inventory exerts pressure on the market. Although there is some support in the short term due to anti-involution sentiment and rising energy prices, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises will gradually take holidays and stop production, and the pre-festival demand may further weaken. The short-term market may fluctuate, but attention should be paid to the possibility of weakening in the later stage. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: The main contract of soda ash opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend during the day. The 120-minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a short-term shock signal. The short-term pressure during the session was near the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the support was near the lower track. The trading volume decreased by 47,834 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 7,849 lots. The intraday high was 1,205, the low was 1,184, and the closing price was 1,190, down 22 yuan/ton (1.82%) from the previous settlement price. [1] - Spot Market: It showed a weak and stable shock. The operation of enterprise equipment was stable, and the output of individual enterprises increased slightly. The supply remained at a high level. The downstream demand was average, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high, mainly maintaining the just-in-time demand. [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 60 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of February 5, the domestic soda ash output was 774,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8,800 tons (1.12%). Among them, the output of light soda ash was 360,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was 414,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7,100 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, compared with 84.19% last week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.94%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of ammonia-alkali method was 88.21%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78%; the capacity utilization rate of combined-alkali method was 77.23%, a month-on-month increase of 2.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 86.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.85%. [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,581,100 tons, an increase of 20,700 tons (1.33%) compared with Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 835,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,500 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 746,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,200 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 36,900 tons (2.39%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 835,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,900 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 746,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,878,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29,770 tons (15.85%). [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 737,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.98%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 95.23%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.82%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices for just-in-time demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high. [3] - Profit: According to the statistics of Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (double tons) of the combined-alkali method was -29 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia-alkali method was -88.8 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated upward, resulting in a slight increase in costs. [3]