铝产业链周度报告-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [5]. - The price of aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate and adjust following the price of electrolytic aluminum [64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US economic data: The US January ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.6, hitting a new high since August 2022. The January ISM services PMI index slightly fell to 53.8 but was better than expected. The January ADP employment number was 22,000, lower than the market forecast. The release of the US non - farm payroll report was postponed [5][12]. - Chinese economic data: China's January official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. The Rating Dog manufacturing PMI rose to a three - month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices rising for the first time in 14 months [5][16]. - Market sentiment: Global large - scale silver ETF selling put pressure on the precious metal market. Market risk appetite was poor, and domestic PMI data weakened. Steady - growth policies need continuous efforts [5]. - Aluminum market fundamentals: Overseas new production capacity is slowly put into operation. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has changed little in the near term. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, some enterprises choose to take holidays in advance, and the demand shows a weakening trend. Aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little [8]. - Bearish factors: Social inventory continues to accumulate. Consumption weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. Precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8][9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Bauxite supply: From January to November this year, China's cumulative bauxite production was 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, the single - month output was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.26%. The domestic bauxite supply is tight. The total amount of imported bauxite in December was 14.67 million tons. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to be relatively loose, and the export volume of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is expected to reach 180 million tons [18][21]. - Alumina market: In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to be 8.6 million tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is put into operation on time, the alumina supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons in 2026. Overseas, the planned new production capacity from 2025 - 2026 is 8.5 million tons, and 5.5 million tons are expected to be added in 2026. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in January, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [29]. - Aluminum processing: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate last week was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week [30]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased to 492,975 tons. As of January 30, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10% week - on - week to 216,771 tons. As of February 5, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 853,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from Monday [40][43]. - Price difference: On February 5, the average price of Shanghai Wumao aluminum had a reduced discount. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount increased [47]. - Recycled aluminum: In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a 41,800 - ton month - on - month decrease. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement. As of January 15, the recycled aluminum alloy industry start - up rate was 58%, unchanged from the previous week [50][54]. - Aluminum trade: In 2025, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In December, exports were 540,000 tons, a 5.3% year - on - year decrease. Imports in December were 320,000 tons, a 33.3% year - on - year increase [58]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of January 30, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, a 300 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase from the previous week [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the electrolytic aluminum prices and continue to fluctuate and adjust [64]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [67].