焦煤焦炭周度报告-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - coking futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated. The coke market is affected by the cost side of coking coal, with stable capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and slightly higher capacity utilization of steel mills. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed and implemented, improving the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [5][35][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Most Tangshan steel mills have basically completed winter storage replenishment, with a small increase in winter storage. The average available days of coke in Tangshan steel mills is about 11 days, 2 days more than the average in early December last year [5] - On February 3, it was reported that some mines in Indonesia suspended spot trading, which attracted high attention. On February 5, the director of the Indonesian Mineral and Coal Department stated that the approval document for the 2026 coal mining work plan had not been officially issued, and the rumored reduction information was invalid [5] - The government work reports of 13 provinces in 2026 mentioned infrastructure - related content. Henan will implement more than 1,000 provincial key projects with an annual investment of 1 trillion yuan; Shaanxi will implement 640 provincial key projects with an investment of over 350 billion yuan [5] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction. The inventory reduction of coking coal is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises continue to replenish coking coal inventory, and steel mills slightly replenish raw material inventory. The capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. The iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed [5] 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, domestic macro - policies are positive, and the iron - water output is stable, supporting the demand for furnace materials [9] - Bearish factors: The winter storage expectation of steel is not strong, restricting the raw material replenishment space of steel mills. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment rhythm slows down, and the financial market fluctuates sharply with repeated sentiment [9] 3.3 Data Analysis - Supply contraction: As of the week of February 6, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46%, and the daily average output decreased by 16,200 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.26%, and the daily average output decreased by 4,600 tons. As of January 31, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.07676 million tons, remaining at a high level [11] - Inventory reduction not smooth: As of the week of February 6, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.6465 million tons, a decrease of 25,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.3446 million tons, an increase of 228,900 tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.7276 million tons, a decrease of 136,200 tons [17] - Independent coking enterprises replenish inventory: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 13.0239 million tons, an increase of 676,000 tons. The available days of inventory were 15.51 days, an increase of 0.74 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 827,400 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons [20] - Steel mills slightly replenish inventory: As of February 6, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.242 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons. The available days of inventory were 13.12 days, an increase of 0.09 days. The coke inventory was 6.9238 million tons, an increase of 141,900 tons, and the available days were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.22 days [24] - Capacity utilization: As of February 6, the capacity utilization of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 631,400 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The capacity utilization of 247 steel enterprises was 86.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, and the daily average output of coke was 472,400 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [26] - Coke consumption: As of the week of February 6, China's coke consumption was 1.0286 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [28] - Coke price increase: As of February 6, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, the same as the previous period. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30 [30] - Double - coking basis structure: The double - coking futures market fluctuated [32] 3.4后市研判 - Coking coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic coking coal supply side has a slight contraction, the downstream inventory rhythm slows down, and the inventory reduction is not smooth. Independent coking enterprises have been replenishing coking coal inventory for many weeks, but the replenishment intensity weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. The raw material replenishment intensity of steel mills is less than that of independent coking enterprises. Before the festival, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly. After the festival, attention should be paid to the "Two Sessions expectations" and the demand strength during the "Golden March and Silver April". The price has support at the bottom, but the upward momentum needs to be accumulated [35] - Coke: Recently, the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises remains stable, and that of steel mills rises slightly. On the demand side, the iron - water output is stable, supporting the coke consumption. Since mid - January, multiple coking enterprises issued price increase letters, originally planned to be implemented on January 19 and postponed to January 30. After the new round of coke price increase, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has improved. The coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises is not large, and the futures market fluctuates with the cost side of coking coal [38]