2026年农产品市场展望：农产品：蛛网定价，旱则资舟

Report Overview - Report Title: "Agricultural Products: Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - 2026 Agricultural Market Outlook" [1] - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [3][48]. - Agricultural product prices are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio [3][48]. - Although the overall global agricultural product output is still increasing, the increment mainly comes from South America, with a high concentration. Global resource nationalism is intensifying, and geopolitical risks remain, increasing the risk premium of essential agricultural products [3][44][48]. - In 2025/2026, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of global rice, corn, and soybeans decreased. The prices of corn and soybeans are relatively low compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals and have fallen below the US planting cost for two consecutive years [3][48]. - It is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 due to low planting profits. Weather premium trading weight is increasing [3][48]. - The domestic hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025, with the possibility of passive capacity reduction during the consumption off - season. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities driven by the biodiesel policy for oils, the expected opportunities for the rapeseed - soybean meal price difference due to improved China - Canada relations, and the hog cycle reversal opportunities [3][44][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Prices Are Relatively Low - Since September 2025, gold has started a new upward trend. The expected Fed rate cut has increased the attractiveness of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar's credit has led to "de - dollarization" trading, and new consumption in AI computing power, energy storage, and photovoltaics has boosted the demand for precious metals [6]. - Since November 2025, silver has become the new leader in price increases, and the gold - to - silver ratio has accelerated its decline. Silver supply is limited by associated mining, and its demand has increased rapidly in new energy vehicles, energy storage, and photovoltaics [8]. - Since November 2025, non - ferrous metals such as brass and aluminum have seen accelerated price increases, and in mid - December 2025, nickel with high inventories also started to make up for the price increase, spreading to the entire non - ferrous metal sector [10]. - Agricultural product prices are at a historical low level. Compared with the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the relative position of agricultural product prices is low. Even after the recent sharp correction of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, this situation has not changed [12]. 3.2 The Fundamentals of Agricultural Products Are Gradually Improving - As of January 2026, USDA expects the global grain output in 2025/2026 to reach a new high (+4.2%), with rigid demand growth (+2.8%). The inventory - to - consumption ratios of rice, corn, and soybeans have decreased [13]. - In 2025/2026, the global rice output decreased by 0.03%, wheat output increased by 5.16%, corn output increased by 5.29%, soybean output decreased by 0.34%, rapeseed output increased by 10.66%, palm oil output increased by 2.31%, sugar output increased by 4.58%, and cotton output increased by 0.80% [15][17][20][24]. - The US soybean has been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $96.4 per acre, and the US corn has also been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $130.15 per acre [36]. - From October 2024 to now, the CBOT corn and soybean futures prices have been fluctuating at a low level, and it is expected that the US corn and soybean planting will continue to be in a loss - making state in 2025/2026 [38]. - The El Niño index has been negative since September 2024, and in January 2026, it was - 0.5, in a weak La Niña state, which is beneficial to the crop yield [40]. - USDA expects the US corn yield per acre in 2025/2026 to be 186.5 bushels, and the soybean yield per acre to be 53 bushels. The Brazilian corn yield per hectare in 2025/2026 is expected to be 5.8 tons, decreasing for two consecutive years, and the soybean yield per hectare is expected to be 3.63 tons, at a historical high level [42]. - The hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025 for 16 weeks, and after a short - term low - profit stage in January 2026, it is expected to continue to be in a loss - making state during the consumption off - season. Once the market enters the passive capacity reduction stage, the cycle reversal opportunity should be noted [44]. 3.3 Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities, with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [46]. - In 2025/2026, the US corn and soybean yields are at historical high levels. The market focuses on the expected reduction of the planting area in the US in 2026/2027 due to continuous negative planting profits. If the expectation is confirmed from March to May 2026, the weight of weather premium will increase from July to August [47]. - The prices of agricultural products are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio. The relative position of corn and soybean prices compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals is low, and it is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 [48].