沥青周度报告-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the asphalt market showed a weak trend due to the decline in oil prices. Geopolitical tensions eased, and market risk appetite decreased, leading to a weak and volatile oil price. The weakening oil price was transmitted to the chemical sector, causing a general market correction after the previous rise. In the future, before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile and lack a clear direction, likely continuing to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to focus on the progress of the US - Iran negotiation in Oman [8][52]. - The report suggests a wait - and - see trading strategy [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus includes Saudi Arabia reducing crude oil prices for Asian buyers, the US - Iran negotiation on February 6 in Oman, and the non - substantial progress of the Ukraine - Russia talks in Abu Dhabi [7]. - Key data: As of February 4, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 24.5%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. As of February 6, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 43.6 tons, a decrease of 2 tons from the previous week; the sample enterprise factory inventory was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 93.8 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous week [8]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include raw material disturbances and geopolitical disturbances; bearish factors include the ineffective improvement of demand [12]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - US - Iran situation: Trump and the Iranian foreign minister expressed positive views on reaching an agreement. However, the US military shot down an Iranian drone, the negotiation was once cancelled, and then resumed. There are significant differences between the two sides on core issues, and the negotiation has high uncertainty [13]. - Ukraine - Russia situation: The talks did not achieve substantial progress, with only the exchange of 157 prisoners on each side as a specific result. Both sides released positive signals, but there are still large differences on core issues, and the prospect of a peace agreement is highly uncertain [14]. 3.4 Supply - demand Analysis - Supply: As of February 6, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 43.6 tons, a decrease of 2 tons from the previous week. The refinery operating rate is in a seasonal decline, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease. As of February 4, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 24.5%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, with different degrees of decline in some regions [15][22]. - Demand: As of February 6, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 33.4 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous statistical period but an increase of 11.6 tons year - on - year. The demand is still weak, and the modified asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 4.62% as of February 6 [25][28]. - Inventory: As of February 6, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 93.8 tons, an increase of 4.6 tons from the previous week, entering the inventory accumulation cycle [34][41]. - Spread: As of February 6, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of February 5, the domestic asphalt basis was - 69 yuan/ton. The cracking spread and processing profit decreased, and the basis strengthened [50]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The asphalt market is expected to be affected by the high - volatility and wide - fluctuating oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise again, and it is recommended to focus on the US - Iran negotiation progress [52].