铜产业链周度报告-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [5][52] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US manufacturing index reached a new high since August 2022, while the service index declined slightly. US ADP employment was lower than expected, and the release of the non - farm employment report was postponed. The large - scale selling of the world's largest silver leveraged ETF added selling pressure to the precious metal market, and market risk appetite was poor [5][12] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to improve the copper reserve system, expand the national strategic copper reserve scale, and explore a commercial reserve mechanism. It also considers including copper concentrates in the reserve scope [5] - Globally, copper mine supply is facing structural challenges, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap in 2026. In China, refined copper production remained high in December 2025, and there were plans for smelter overhauls in January 2026 [5][20][25] - The import volume of scrap copper in China reached a new monthly high in December 2025. The production enthusiasm of refined copper rod enterprises declined significantly in December 2025, and the increase in production in January 2026 was limited [25][29][33] - The refined - scrap copper price difference was at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption. The inventory of global electrolytic copper increased significantly, and the discount range of domestic and foreign copper spot prices decreased [36][44][49] - The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, but there may be policies to improve and stabilize expectations. China's automobile production and sales reached a new high in 2025, and the new - energy vehicle market continued to grow. The new photovoltaic installation scale is expected to decline in 2026 and then return to an upward trend [39][41] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged [8] - Bearish factors: Refined copper production remains at a high level, refined copper inventory continues to accumulate, precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8] 3.3 Data Analysis - Copper mine supply: In 2025, global copper mine supply was severely disrupted, and the supply of copper concentrates had a large gap. The supply is expected to decline in 2026 and turn to a more relaxed state in 2027 [20] - Copper concentrate TC: The spot TC/RC of copper concentrates is in a deep negative range, and the profit of the smelting end is under pressure. Chile has postponed the goal of annual copper production exceeding 6 million tons and lowered production expectations [23] - Refined copper production: In December 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In January 2026, there were plans for smelter overhauls and new plant startups [25] - Scrap copper import: In December 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.90%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [29] - Refined copper rod production: In December 2025, the production of refined copper rods in China decreased significantly, and the production increase in January 2026 was limited [33] - Refined - scrap copper price difference: As of February 5, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 3,380 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [36] - Electrolytic copper inventory: The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper increased, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper also increased [45] - Copper spot premium: On February 5, the premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot was around - 105 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around 77.58 US dollars/ton, with the discount range narrowing [49] 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [52]