弘业纯碱周报：分析师范阿骄-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is in a typical weak - market structure, with limited short - term rebound space. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, ranging from 1,190 to 1,230 yuan/ton, and there will be no trending market before the Spring Festival [3]. - After the pre - festival sentiment disturbance, the soda ash market has returned to the fundamental logic. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, inventory continues to accumulate, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. The main contract has entered a typical weak - market structure of "high inventory + low demand + backwardation", and the market sentiment is dominated by the reality of loose supply and demand [4]. - The supply side has high - level operation of capacity utilization, new capacity release, and no expected substantial contraction. The demand side is dragged down by float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the pre - festival restocking power of downstream enterprises has weakened significantly. The inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and the industry is in a deep - loss state, with the cost line becoming an important support for the downward price [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Market Overview - After the pre - festival sentiment disturbance, the soda ash market has returned to the fundamental logic. The main contract SA2605 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton on February 5, down 1.65%. The market sentiment has shifted from pre - festival restocking expectations to the reality of loose supply and demand [4]. Supply - On February 5, the industry's comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, still operating at a high level. The new 1 - million - ton/year production capacity of Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen has been released, and the industry's total production capacity has exceeded 40 million tons. Enterprises such as Xuzhou Fengcheng and Hunan Lengshuijiang plan to resume production, and there is no expected substantial contraction on the supply side [4]. Demand - The demand for heavy soda is dragged down by float glass (capacity utilization rate of 75.57%) and photovoltaic glass (66.31%), and the expected resumption of new production lines has not been realized. Light soda remains stable due to the high operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry but cannot support the overall market. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are shutting down one after another, and the pre - festival restocking power has weakened significantly [4]. Inventory - As of February 5, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers nationwide was 1581,100 tons, an increase of 20,700 tons compared with 1,560,400 tons on February 2, a month - on - month increase of 1.33% and a year - on - year increase of 6.41%. The inventory pressure of both light and heavy soda is prominent. Due to limited logistics before the Spring Festival, the factory inventory is expected to continue to accumulate during the Spring Festival [4]. Profit - The production cost of soda ash remains at a high level, and the industry is in a deep - loss state. The price of steam coal fluctuates upward, and the cost of rock salt is stable, strengthening the cost support. However, long - term losses in the industry suppress the willingness to actively cut production, and the cost line becomes an important support for the downward price. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is still negative, and the profit of the combined - soda process is also at a low level [4].