黑色金属日报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, meaning a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, indicating a certain bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is weak, and most varieties' prices are under pressure. The short - term trends of various varieties are mainly in a state of shock, and the prices are difficult to rise or fall significantly due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and market expectations [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - The futures prices continue to decline. Thread demand and production decline, and inventory accumulates; hot - roll demand drops slightly, production stabilizes, and inventory accumulates slightly. Steel mill profits are poor, and downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient. The resumption of blast - furnace production slows down, and hot - metal production stabilizes. Domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the sharp decline in non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and the futures prices are under short - term pressure [1] Iron Ore - The futures prices decline. The global shipment volume is seasonally low, and the impact of the Australian hurricane season on production and shipment is limited. The domestic arrival volume is relatively strong year - on - year, and port inventory accumulates to a historical high. Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, hot - metal production increases slightly, and steel - mill restocking is coming to an end. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with a marginal improvement expectation, and the short - term trend is mainly in shock [2] Coke - The price fluctuates downward. Coking profits are average, daily production decreases slightly, and inventory increases slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production remains at an off - season level, and steel profits are average. There is still a strong sentiment for raw - material price cuts. The futures price of coke has a premium, and the coking - coal futures price has a premium over Mongolian coal. The price of coking coal is likely to fluctuate in a range [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuates downward. The daily Mongolian - coal customs clearance volume is 1,261 vehicles. The production of coking - coal mines increases slightly, and the spot auction transaction price is inversely proportional to the futures price. Terminal inventory increases significantly, and total coking - coal inventory rises sharply. Winter - storage demand is coming to an end. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production remains at an off - season level, and steel profits are average. There is still a strong sentiment for raw - material price cuts. The coking - coal price is difficult to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate in a range [5] Silicon Manganese - The price mainly fluctuates. The spot price of manganese ore decreases slightly, and there is no arbitrage space in the futures market, with limited downward space. The market is waiting for steel tenders. Manganese - ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly, and the mine - end shipment increases month - on - month, but the mine cost is higher than in previous years, and the price - concession space is limited. Hot - metal production remains at a seasonal low level, weekly silicon - manganese production increases slightly, and inventory increases slightly. The price is affected by oversupply and the "anti - involution" concept [6] Silicon Iron - The price mainly fluctuates. The power cost in some production areas decreases, and the semi - coke price decreases slightly. The main production areas are mainly in a loss state. Hot - metal production remains at an off - season level. Export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and secondary demand increases marginally. Overall demand remains resilient. Silicon - iron supply changes little, inventory decreases slightly, and the price is affected by oversupply and the "anti - involution" concept [7]