2026年两会之地方两会的GDP目标信号

Report Summary - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1][2] - The core view of the report is that the GDP growth targets of local governments in 2026 are generally set to be lowered, showing a more pragmatic and cautious attitude towards economic growth. The target setting of Guangdong may indicate a possible change in the national GDP growth target [2] Overall Trend - In 2026, the GDP growth targets of 21 out of 31 provinces and municipalities have been lowered, accounting for 68%. Nine provinces and municipalities have kept their targets unchanged, and only one province (Jiangxi) has raised its target [5][6] - Many cities such as Guangdong and Shandong have added the statement of "striving for better results in actual work" [6] Regional Analysis - The regions with lowered targets are mostly concentrated in the western and northeastern regions. The three northeastern provinces have all lowered their targets, and the targets in 2026 are concentrated in the range of 4.5% - 5%. Many western provinces have also lowered their targets [8][9] - Tibet maintains a high - growth target of "above 7%", and Xinjiang sets a relatively high growth target of "5.5% - 6%", reflecting the particularity of their economic development stages and policy support [9] Economic Powerhouses - Economic powerhouses or key regions have generally lowered their targets and increased flexibility. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have slightly lowered their targets, while Shandong has remained unchanged, and Beijing and Shanghai have kept the same targets as last year [10] - Guangdong's GDP target setting is often consistent with the national GDP growth target. In 2026, Guangdong has set an interval target of "4.5% - 5%" again since 2019, which may indicate the possibility of setting an interval target for the national growth rate [10]