2026年02月06日：农产品日报-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Egg [1] - Bearish: Live Pig [1] - Neutral: Soybean [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product market is in a state of shock, with various factors such as policies, international trade, and macro - risks influencing the market trends of different varieties [2][3][4] - Different agricultural product varieties face different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investors should pay attention to short - term risks and market changes [3][4][8] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybean - CBOT soybeans are strong due to improved export expectations. The domestic policy continues to promote soybean yield and protect planting profits. Policy - side soybean auctions increase marginal supply, with a strong transaction price [2] - Short - term focus should be on policies and market sentiment, as well as the impact of macro - events on the overall commodity market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Reuters predicts that the yields of Brazil and Argentina in the 2025/26 soybean season will change compared to January data, and the US soybean ending stocks will decrease [3] - After the Sino - US leaders' phone call, there are uncertainties in soybean purchase quantity. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate [3] - The USDA February supply - demand report will be released on February 11, 2026, at 1:00 am Beijing time [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Gold and silver volatility increases, domestic soybean oil reduces positions and prices fluctuate downward. Although CBOT soybeans are strong, domestic soybean oil is weaker than the US market [4] - The US biodiesel policy is positive, the fundamentals of US soybean oil are strong, and there is a high probability that CBOT soybeans and US soybean oil will fluctuate strongly [4] - The impact of the 2026 macro - environment cannot be ignored, and risks should be controlled [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market fluctuates. Oilseed import expectations improve, and Sino - US, Sino - Canada, and US - Canada economic and trade relations are important for rapeseed trade [6] - The US biofuel policy ensures the stability of Canadian rapeseed oil exports. The rapeseed oil trading on the CGS Warehouse Network is fully completed, and the incremental supply of Australian seeds eases market concerns [6] - The short - term trend of rapeseed products is mainly fluctuating [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is stable with a slight upward trend, and some deep - processing enterprises in Shandong have lowered their purchase prices [7] - After the Spring Festival, the ground - stored grain may be concentrated on the market, and the short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate [7] Live Pig - The near - month 03 contract of live pigs continues to fall to a new low, other contracts decline slightly, and funds reduce positions. Spot prices show signs of stabilization [8] - The current industry's出栏 weight is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens still has room to decline. The situation around the 2026 Spring Festival needs further observation [8] - In the medium - to - long term, due to the increasing出栏 pressure, it is expected that the pig price will reach a new low in the first half of next year [8] Egg - The decline of egg futures slows down, funds reduce positions and shift from near - month to far - month contracts. Spot prices in some provinces are stable, while in others they continue to fall [9] - The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January has improved month - on - month but still declined year - on - year, indicating that the low replenishment sentiment has been repaired but is still lower than the high level in the first half of 2025 [9] - There is upward momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches the low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 can be considered [9]