南华期货钢材周报：操作上节前谨慎观望-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall contradiction in the iron ore industry chain is not significant. There is pressure on iron ore supply, but the overall market risk appetite has weakened, liquidity is poor, and prices have declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the holiday [2][4] - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the steel mill's profit is acceptable, the demand for terminal steel products has entered the pre - holiday off - season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - The steel fundamentals are acceptable with certain support, and the current steel mill profit is acceptable with some room for production increase [7] - The price forecast range for iron ore is 770 - 820, with a current at - the - money option IV of 21.09% and a historical volatility percentile of 11.3% [8] - For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and one is worried about future inventory price decline, strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2603, short, 25%, entry range 830 - 840) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2603 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if one needs to purchase in the future and is worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2603, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2603 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 3.2 Core Data - Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table: On February 6, 2026, the iron - making cost per ton was 2436.56 yuan, the blast - furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton was - 1 yuan, the blast - furnace rebar profit per ton was 63 yuan, the Jiangsu electric - furnace flat - electricity rebar profit per ton was - 95 yuan, the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, and the iron - scrap price difference was - 100 yuan [9] - Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data: On January 30, 2026, the global shipment volume was 3094.6 million tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2466.5 million tons, etc. [9] - Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data: On February 6, 2026, the daily average port clearance volume was 341.08 million tons, the daily average pig iron output was 228.58 million tons, etc. [10] - Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data: On February 6, 2026, the 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 17140.71 million tons, the 45 - port trade ore ratio was 66.06%, etc. [11] 3.3 Supply - Global Shipment Analysis: Analyzed the global shipment volume of iron ore from multiple aspects such as seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value year - on - year, and comparison with historical data [13] - Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis: Studied the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines from aspects like seasonality, year - to - date cumulative shipment volume difference, and over - seasonality [14][16] - Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis: Analyzed the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines, including seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value difference, over - seasonality, and the relationship with the iron ore price index [18][20][24] - Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis: Analyzed the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][28] - Capsize Shipping Analysis: Studied the freight price of capesize ships, the proportion of freight in iron ore cost, ship speed, and the global weekly floating inventory of iron ore [30][32] - Domestic Ore Supply Analysis: Analyzed the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly output from 433 mining enterprises [34] 3.4 Demand Analysis - Pig Iron Analysis: Analyzed the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, including seasonality, the impact of blast - furnace maintenance on output, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality and iron ore price [37] - Steel Mill Profit Analysis: Analyzed the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the guiding relationship between profit and future steel production [39][40] - Downstream Steel Analysis - Rebar: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, short - process production ratio, price - cost relationship, etc. of rebar [51][53][55] - Hot - rolled Coil: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [60][62] - Medium - thick Plate: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [64][65] - Off - balance - sheet Steel: Estimated the off - balance - sheet output and analyzed the combined inventory of on - balance - sheet and off - balance - sheet crude steel, as well as the output, inventory, and apparent demand of H - shaped steel, angle steel, galvanized coils, etc. [67][68][70] - Export Analysis: Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port departure volume, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [91][93] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - Port Inventory Analysis: Analyzed the inventory of 45 ports, including the overall inventory, the inventory structure of different ore types, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore price [95][96] - Other Inventory Analysis: Analyzed the inventory of 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills' in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore, and the estimated inventory turnover days [112][113] 3.6 Valuation Analysis - Basis and Term Structure: Provided the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profit of different positions. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts [115][116] - Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio: Analyzed the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [121][123] - Coking Coal Ratio Analysis: Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore price difference of different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore in terms of price [126][128] - Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis: Analyzed the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between scrap steel cost - effectiveness and iron - scrap price difference, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [130]