2026年02月06日能源日报-20260206

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short-term balance in the long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish trend with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and other regions has a significant impact on the energy market, causing fluctuations in oil prices and affecting the supply and demand patterns of various energy products [3][4][5] - The global oil market is facing inventory accumulation pressure, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply under the influence of multiple factors [3] - Different energy products have different market trends. High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong, low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and asphalt prices are expected to continue to rise [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, the crude oil market was affected by the alternating tension and relaxation of the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and the oil price maintained a volatile trend. The main contract of SC crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.6% (-2.9 yuan/barrel) compared with last Friday's closing price [3] - The near-month contract premium has dropped more significantly than the far-month contract. The market's concern about a direct military conflict in the Middle East and the resulting interruption of crude oil supply has temporarily eased [3] - Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on crude oil prices. The global oil market still has significant inventory accumulation pressure, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply [3] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - For high-sulfur fuel oil, geopolitics is the current main contradiction. Due to the high uncertainty of future geopolitical evolution and the structural irreplaceability of high-sulfur resources in the Middle East for the Asian market, the price of high-sulfur fuel oil continues to be supported [4] - The spot price difference remains strong, indicating a tight supply-demand pattern in the market. This is mainly due to the seasonal demand for marine fuel, the replacement procurement of Venezuelan raw materials by domestic refineries, and the decrease in Middle East arrivals [4] - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue its strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil is under greater pressure. On the one hand, there are continuous problems with overseas refinery equipment; on the other hand, arbitrage cargoes from the West are expected to arrive one after another, bringing marginal supply increments [4] - With the arrival of the shipping off-season around the Spring Festival, the demand support is expected to weaken, and the low-sulfur fuel oil market is under overall pressure [4] Asphalt - Some local refineries in Shandong have stopped production, and the main refineries in the southern region maintain intermittent production. The production schedule in February has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the supply pressure is limited [5] - As of the end of January, the cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample enterprises was 4.9%, which was the first time the cumulative year-on-year change turned positive since the beginning of the year, indicating an improvement in consumption performance year-on-year [5] - A domestic chemical company bid for Canadian Cold Lake crude oil as a substitute for Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel compared with Brent crude oil. It is expected that refineries will face an increase in the cost of substitute raw materials after the second quarter, and the futures contracts for relevant months have relatively high increases [5] - The asphalt price continues to show a strong trend, and the cracking spread is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [5]