Yin He Qi Huo·2026-02-06 11:23Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices continued to decline from their highs, and as short - term market sentiment and capital disturbances came to an end, prices gradually returned to the fundamental logic. The supply side continued to contribute significant increments, the supply remained loose, and port inventories of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly. The domestic terminal steel demand was unlikely to improve significantly. After the Spring Festival, the market trading logic would focus on the recovery of terminal steel demand in the first half of the year, which might fall short of expectations. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals was expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore was unlikely to be sustained. Overall, the current market was mainly dominated by macro and capital factors. This week, the macro sentiment cooled, the iron ore price valuation was moderately high, and the iron ore price was expected to be weak [4]. - The trading strategy suggested a weak - running trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The iron ore price was expected to run weakly. The single - side trading was expected to be weak, while arbitrage and options trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Iron Core Logic Analysis - Global Iron Ore Shipment: Since 2026, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% or 15 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.82 million tons, a 7.4% or 6.1 million - ton increase year - on - year, and Brazil's were 6.5 million tons, a 5.5% or 1.7 million - ton increase. The shipments of major overseas mines remained at a high level year - on - year. In 2025, 1.26 billion tons of iron ore were imported, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has continued to grow [7]. - Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment: Since 2026, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 7.3 million tons. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, about 20 million tons for the whole year. It is expected to be in the production ramping - up stage in 2026 and enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027 [9]. - Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly, resulting in a 4 - million - ton increase in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory compared with the previous week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern remains loose. Since January, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, with an inventory accumulation of about 15 million tons [11]. - Domestic Terminal Steel Demand: In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate new construction was 19%, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market improved marginally but remained at the bottom, while the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly. In the first half of 2026, the demand might fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been declining, and it is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026 on the high - base background of the first half of 2025. Overseas, in 2025, the consumption of iron ore decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of iron elements increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year. From the second quarter to the end of the year, overseas iron - element consumption was at a high level and continued to contribute increments. India's crude - steel output increased by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year in 2025, and its demand remained at a relatively high level [13]. Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking - Imported Iron Ore Port Price: The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the prices of PB powder and Carajás fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [19]. - Imported Iron Ore Port Profit: It presents the import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. - Profit of Mainstream Steel Mills in East China: It includes the cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China, the iron - making cost (excluding tax), the cash cost of hot - rolled coils, the cost of billets (excluding tax), and the cash cost of rebar [23]. - Domestic - Overseas US Dollar Spread: It shows the spreads between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore to domestic iron ore [25]. - Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread: It provides data on the basis between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. - Global Four Major Mines' Shipments: It shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. - Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory: It includes the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at ports [31].