养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260206

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybean has emerged, with limited subsequent decline space, and it is expected to continue the volatile trend [1] - Corn is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state before the Spring Festival, and buying at dips can be considered if there is a significant decline [2] - The continuous promotion of capacity reduction will be the core theme of the egg supply side in 2026. The in - production laying hen inventory is expected to decline year - on - year in the second quarter, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish in the short term [2] - The darkest time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct the far - month supply - demand balance sheet [4] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast are stable, with limited grassroots inventory and strong price - holding psychology. High - protein soybean supply is tight with a high - quality - high - price feature, and some 39% protein content commodity beans are around 2.2 yuan/jin [1] - On February 2nd, 60,608 tons of 2022 reserve soybeans were auctioned and all were sold, but the auction did not warm up the overall market, and the acceptance of high prices is still weak. Most traders are digesting inventory and fulfilling previous contracts [1] Corn - As the Spring Festival approaches, the corn spot market is approaching the end of trading. Downstream enterprises have basically completed stocking, and deep - processing enterprises are starting shutdown maintenance [2] - This year, the demand for corn in Northeast China is strong, and the grain - selling progress is faster than the same period. However, recent temperature rises and the approaching Spring Festival have increased the enthusiasm of grassroots farmers to sell grain, leading to an increase in corn listings and a continuous decline in prices [2] Egg - Based on the 4 - month cycle from chick sales to in - production inventory, the low - replenishment situation since the second quarter of 2025 will be concentrated in 2026. The in - production laying hen inventory is expected to turn from an increase to a decrease year - on - year in the second quarter, and may fall below 1.3 billion in the middle of the year [2] - The Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end, and the egg futures price has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the supply - side reduction performance before the Spring Festival. There is no obvious short - term driver, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] Live Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, which is 101.6% of the normal reserve. The national live pig slaughter in 2025 was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The national live pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% [3] - From late January to early February, as the pre - holiday slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices further down. Although farmers are resistant to price drops and there are weather disturbances, they can only slow down the decline rate [3][4]