沥青月报：跟随成本，短期观望-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [15] Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the judgment that the production increase rhythm of Venezuela is accelerating. It also believes that the upward space of the cost side is limited, and suggests a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products [15] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The report presents the trend of the asphalt main contract in the near - month, and marks the changes in supply - demand and cost factors at different time points [13][14] - Factor Assessment: Supply is neutral - bullish as the heavy - traffic asphalt utilization rate starts to rise while overall imports decline; demand is bearish as the sub - item starts of the demand side are weak, especially the shoe - material end is weaker than expected and the overall downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced) as the overall inventory shows difficulty in destocking, and the social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation while the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; cost is neutral - bullish as the crude oil cost stabilizes, and the narrowing of the Merey oil short - term discount leads to cost increase [15] - Strategic Viewpoint: Maintain the previous view, keep a wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products in the short term [15] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: Presents the daily market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [18][21][28][24] - Basis Trend: Shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [30] - Term Structure: Displays the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, and 03 - 06 [33][34] 3. Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: Illustrates the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [39][42][43] - Import: Shows the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, and the import profit from different regions (East China - South Korea, South China - Singapore), and the cumulative import volume from different countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia) and the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [48][51] - Valuation Ratio: Presents the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt and asphalt to Brent [54] - Refinery Profit: Displays the refining profit of main refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit of petroleum coke [57][60] 4. Inventory - Domestic Inventory: Shows the domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [65] - Warehouse Receipt: Presents the asphalt warehouse receipt and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [68] - Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price: Analyzes the relationship between inventory and profit, and profit and price [71] 5. Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: Displays the asphalt shipment volume of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [76][77][81] - Downstream Start - up Rate: Shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [86][88] - Highway Investment: Presents the cumulative value of highway construction investment in transportation fixed - assets, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [90][92][96] - Road - related Machinery: Displays the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in transportation fixed - assets [101][105] - Related Consumption: Shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, and the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance [108][109] 6. Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: Presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [114][119][117] 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: Involves exploration and extraction [123][124] - Asphalt Industrial Chain: From the production process, it can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction; by use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [127]