能源日报-20260206

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (predicted upward trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (predicted upward trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short-term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current market, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (predicted upward trend, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the energy market, and the oil price is expected to continue to fluctuate sharply [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a strong trend due to supply and demand and geopolitical factors, while low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure [4] - The supply pressure of asphalt is limited, consumption has improved, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, the crude oil market was affected by the alternating tension and relaxation of the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and the oil price maintained a fluctuating trend. The main contract of SC crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.6% (-2.9 yuan/barrel) compared to last Friday [3] - The premium of the near-month contract over the far-month contract has dropped more significantly. The market's concern about the interruption of crude oil supply due to a direct military conflict in the Middle East has temporarily eased [3] - Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on crude oil prices. The current global oil market inventory accumulation pressure is still significant, and the situation of intensified oil price fluctuations is expected to continue [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitics is the current main contradiction. Due to the high uncertainty of future geopolitical evolution and the structural irreplaceability of high-sulfur resources in the Middle East to the Asian market, the price is supported. The spot price difference remains strong, indicating a tight supply and demand pattern, and it is expected to continue the strong trend [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: It is facing greater pressure. Overseas refinery device problems persist, and the arrival of arbitrage cargoes from the West will increase marginal supply. With the arrival of the shipping off-season around the Spring Festival, demand support is expected to weaken, and the overall market is under pressure [4] Asphalt - Some local refineries in Shandong have shut down production, and the main refineries in the south have maintained intermittent production. The scheduled production in February has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the supply pressure is limited [5] - As of the end of January, the cumulative year-on-year increase in the shipment volume of 54 sample enterprises was 4.9%, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year [5] - A domestic chemical company bid for Canadian Cold Lake crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil as a substitute for Venezuelan crude oil. It is expected that refineries will face an increase in the cost of substitute raw materials after the second quarter, and the futures contracts for relevant months have relatively high increases. The asphalt price is expected to continue the strong trend, and the cracking spread is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [5]