铝月报：情绪面加大市场波动，支撑较强-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, aluminum prices soared significantly and weakened in early February. The decline in precious metals and the US stock AI sector were the main factors suppressing aluminum prices. Currently, the domestic downstream market is in the off - season, with the inventory of aluminum ingots and rods continuing to accumulate. However, downstream demand has improved month - on - month after the price decline. Overseas supply has potential disruptions, LME aluminum inventory remains relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium is at a high level, so the support for aluminum prices is still strong. If the US stocks stop falling, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. The operating range of the main SHFE aluminum contract is expected to be between 22,800 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 2,900 - 3,200 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.996 million tons. The output in January increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. The operating capacity in February is expected to remain relatively stable, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In January, the domestic aluminum - water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%, and it is expected to continue to decline in February. Overseas electrolytic aluminum output increased by nearly 2% year - on - year in January [12]. - Inventory & Spot: As of February 5th, the aluminum ingot inventory reached 853,000 tons, an increase of about 150,000 tons compared to early January. The bonded area inventory was 44,000 tons, a decrease of about 10,000 tons compared to early January. The total aluminum rod inventory was 277,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons compared to early January. The LME aluminum inventory was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to early January. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots narrowed, and the LME market Cash/3M premium first rose and then fell [12]. - Imports and Exports: In January, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports narrowed oscillatingly. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [12]. - Demand: In January, the start - up rates of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum alloys, and aluminum sheets were weak, while those of aluminum foils and aluminum rods were relatively good. The production and sales data of downstream construction, home appliances, and automobiles were weak, and the photovoltaic production schedule was better than the seasonal average [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In January 2026, aluminum prices soared. The main SHFE aluminum contract reached a maximum of 26,185 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M reached a maximum of 3,356 US dollars/ton. In February, aluminum prices declined significantly. Currently, SHFE aluminum is trading around 23,500 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum is around 3,000 US dollars/ton [20]. - Term Spread: In January, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE aluminum structure weakened oscillatingly [26]. - Spot Basis: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared to the end of December 2025, with weak seasonal performance [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In January, the spot performance in Central China and Guangdong was slightly stronger [34]. - LME Premium and Discount: The LME aluminum Cash/3M premium first rose and then fell, and the spot maintained a discount in early February [35]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: In January, the primary aluminum smelting profit increased month - on - month and was at a historical high [42]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of February 5th, the aluminum ingot inventory was 853,000 tons, an increase of about 150,000 tons compared to early January. The bonded area inventory was 44,000 tons, a decrease of about 10,000 tons compared to early January. The total aluminum rod inventory was 277,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons compared to early January. The sum of aluminum ingot and rod inventories increased by about 352,000 tons compared to early January. The LME aluminum inventory was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to early January, still at a relatively low level in recent years [47][50][53]. - LME Inventory Source: In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [56]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In January, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite decreased oscillatingly [61]. - Alumina Price: In January, the prices of domestic and imported alumina declined [66]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price also declined, while the thermal coal price rebounded oscillatingly [69]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In January 2026, the monthly alumina production decreased by 1.8% month - on - month compared to December 2025 and by 2.6% year - on - year compared to January 2025. Routine maintenance at the beginning of the year led to a slight contraction in operating capacity. The operating capacity is expected to continue to decline in February [75]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.996 million tons. The output in January increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. The operating capacity in February is expected to remain relatively stable, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and an annual output increase of about 2.8%. The output in January continued to increase slightly [78]. - Aluminum - Water Ratio: In January, the aluminum rod processing fee remained at a relatively low level, and demand continued to be weak. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum - water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume increased by 19.4% month - on - month and decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decrease by 7.7% in February under the background of the off - season of downstream demand [81]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased month - on - month in December 2025 compared to November [86]. 3.6 Demand Side - Overall Demand: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The aluminum ingot outbound volume in January was lower than the same period last year, showing a trend of being lower first and then higher month - on - month [90]. - Downstream Start - up Rate: In January 2026, China's aluminum rod output was 1.357 million tons, a month - on - month decrease and a slight year - on - year increase; the capacity utilization rate was 54.9%, and the start - up rate was 50.6%, slightly lower than the same period last year. In December 2025, the start - up rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and foils decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles was weak month - on - month, the start - up rate of aluminum sheets declined marginally, and the start - up situation of aluminum foils was slightly better. In December 2025, the start - up rates of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. In January, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots declined, and the start - up rate of aluminum rods increased month - on - month. In December 2025, the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it continued to be weak in January [93][97][100][105]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in February 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 11.49 million units, a 31.6% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 6 million units, a 17% decrease; the production schedule of washing machines was 6.3 million units, a 3.2% decrease. The high - frequency data of real estate and automobile sales in January continued to be weak, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules declined month - on - month, slightly better than the normal seasonal performance [109]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum Imports: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In January, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports narrowed oscillatingly. In December 2025, the aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., and the import volume from Russia increased to 76% [114][115][118]. - Exports of Aluminum Products: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [121]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to December were 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [121]. - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [124].