镍月报：宏观支撑减弱，现实压力逐步体现-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. Although there are still macro - support and the expectation of the reduction of Indonesia's RKAB quota, the short - term nickel supply has not shown a significant decrease, and the nickel price still faces obvious real - world pressure. In the context of long - term bullish and short - term bearish, it is expected that the nickel price will oscillate widely and the center of gravity will gradually rise. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel price in February is expected to be between 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3M contract is expected to be between 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: In January, the nickel ore price increased significantly under the influence of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of the LME nickel price. In the Philippines, rainfall in Surigao suspended mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting the domestic ore price. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable, and the price remained unchanged; the price of pyrometallurgical ore increased to $61.4 per wet ton due to heavy rainfall, MOMS/RKAB verification, regulatory pressure, and miners' reluctance to sell. The benchmark price and premium are expected to remain strong in the future [12]. - Ferronickel: In January, the price of high - nickel pig iron in China remained strong. At the end of the month, the average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose to 1,054 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax included). The price was mainly driven by the widening of the futures - spot price difference and the upstream's price support. Some iron plants in Indonesia switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, and traders locked in goods for arbitrage, resulting in a tight supply of market - circulating goods. Although the downstream was in the off - season, the increase in futures prices improved the profits of stainless - steel enterprises, supporting the ferronickel price. In the short term, the high - nickel pig iron price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - Intermediate products: In January, the overall situation of nickel intermediate products remained "tight + high coefficient". On the MHP side, due to the limited spot circulation volume, the slow approval process (new projects are difficult to increase production in the short term), and policy disturbances, the nickel coefficient remained at a high level. At high prices, downstream acceptance was low, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - to - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. High - grade nickel matte also had a tight supply - demand situation and a firm coefficient, but transactions were suppressed by high prices. The CIF price of auxiliary sulfur remained unchanged, and due to overseas maintenance and shipping delays, the supply was tight, and the price was likely to rise [12]. - Refined nickel: In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. At the end of the month, affected by the decline in precious - metal prices, the price dropped significantly. As of February 5, the main contract of Shanghai nickel was reported at 134,430 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase from the same period last month; the LME nickel price was reported at $17,060 per ton, a 0.3% increase from the same period last month. In terms of spot, the spot was tight in the first half of January, and the premium remained at a high level, but the spot gradually became loose in the second half of the month, and the premium dropped significantly. The market transactions were relatively cold throughout the month, and end - users were highly averse to high prices. In terms of macro, Trump nominated Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts was slightly postponed, causing a significant decline in precious - metal prices. In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 68,000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 286,000 tons [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. At the end of the month, affected by the decline in precious - metal prices, the price dropped significantly. In terms of the premium, the premium of imported nickel remained stable in the first half of the month, but continued to decline in the second half of the month, indicating that the spot was gradually becoming loose. In January, the ferronickel price rose steadily, and the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel returned to a normal level. The price of nickel sulfate mainly fluctuated with the nickel price [17][19][22]. 3.3 Cost End - Nickel ore: The domestic nickel ore inventory level continued to decline in January. The nickel ore price remained strong. As the nickel price increased, the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore rose in January. Currently, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen to $60.9 per ton, a $9 increase from the beginning of the month. The price of wet - process ore was relatively stable, fluctuating around $22 per ton [26][28][31]. - Ferronickel production: In December, the ferronickel production was stable. Due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel, it is expected that the production in January will decline month - on - month. In January, as the ferronickel price rose, the production profits of ferronickel in Indonesia and China increased significantly [34][36]. - Intermediate products: In December, the production of intermediate products was stable. In January, due to the significant increase in the MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel, it is expected that the production of MHP and nickel matte will increase significantly month - on - month. In January, the coefficient price of intermediate products remained at a high level [39][43]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Production: In January 2026, the national refined - nickel production was 65,000 tons, a 4,417 - ton increase compared to December 2025 [48]. - Demand: In December 2025, the domestic stainless - steel production was 2.8284 million tons, a 219,800 - ton decrease compared to November. The inventory level decreased to a relatively low level [51]. - Import and export: In January, the global refined - nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly reflected in the domestic social inventory. As of January 30, the global refined - nickel visible inventory was 354,000 tons, a 43,000 - ton increase compared to the end of December. After the nickel price rose, the production profits of smelting enterprises increased significantly [57][59]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Supply: In December, the domestic nickel - sulfate production was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly [64]. - Demand: In December, the loading volume of ternary power batteries was 36.4 GWh, basically unchanged month - on - month; the production of precursors decreased slightly. The production profit margin of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [66][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and supply - demand gaps of various nickel products such as NPI, refined nickel, and nickel salts in China and other regions. The global primary nickel supply and demand have a certain gap, and the supply - demand gap of refined nickel also shows different trends in different quarters [71].