铅月报：有色情绪退潮，产业现状偏弱-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This report does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state of weak industrial conditions, with both smelting finished - product inventory and social inventory rising. Although the panic in the market has been somewhat alleviated, the price of the non - ferrous sector still fluctuates greatly [11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Price Review: From January 5th to February 3rd, lead prices first rose and then fell sharply, with the Shanghai lead weighted index dropping 4.00%. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,400 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,425 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 33,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 45,900 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from February 2nd [11] - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 15,800 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 51.45 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 142.1 US dollars/ton [11] - Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the lead disk was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 268.7 yuan/ton [11] - Industry Data: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 150 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. On the recycled side, the recycled lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 69.0% [11] 3.2 Primary Supply - Import and Production: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. The cumulative net import of lead concentrates from January to December was 1.4253 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. The net import of silver concentrates in December was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. The cumulative net import of silver concentrates from January to December was 1.931 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. The cumulative production of lead concentrates from January to December was 1.6582 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. The net import of lead - containing ores in December was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. The cumulative net import of lead - containing ores from January to December was 1.6277 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17] - Total Supply: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. The cumulative supply of lead concentrates from January to December was 3.2859 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In November 2025, overseas lead ore production was 264,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.49% and a month - on - month change of 1.85%. The cumulative production of lead ore from January to November was 2.6749 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.42% [19] - Inventory and Processing Fees: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 63,000 tons, the factory inventory was 493,000 tons, equivalent to 33.95 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 150 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - Smelting Start - up Rate and Production: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.4%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 32,100 tons. In January 2026, China's primary lead production was 342,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 17.92% and a month - on - month change of 2.86% [26] 3.3 Recycled Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The recycled lead waste inventory was 117,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 51%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,400 tons. In January 2026, China's recycled lead production was 365,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 25.13% and a month - on - month change of 2.96% [31][33] - Import and Total Supply: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. The cumulative net export of lead ingots from January to December was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in December was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. The cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots from January to December was 7.9568 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 69.0%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. The cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots from January to December was 7.9691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38] - Battery Export: In December 2025, the net export volume of lead - containing batteries was 1.6649 million units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. The total net export of batteries from January to December was 213 million units, a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [41] - Inventory Days: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the continuous increase in the number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Supply - Demand Gap: In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons, and the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap from January to December was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61] - Overseas Supply - Demand Gap: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons, and the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap from January to November was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64] 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 33,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 45,900 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from February 2nd [69] - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 15,800 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 51.45 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 142.1 US dollars/ton [71] - Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the lead disk was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 268.7 yuan/ton [74] - Position Changes: The net long position of investment funds in LME lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [80]