铁矿石月报：基本面承压，关注供应扰动及年后下游需求反馈-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In February, overseas iron ore shipments are in the seasonal off - season, with expected slight decline in shipment volume but relatively high absolute volume. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of weather on the shipping end due to frequent hurricanes in Australia in the first quarter. The arrival volume is expected to decline accordingly. - In January, the annual planned maintenance of steel mills' blast furnaces was gradually completed, with more blast furnaces resuming production and a slight increase in molten iron. In February, the molten iron output is expected to continue to increase slowly, with the daily average molten iron output possibly rising above 2.3 million tons. - Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period of history, and there are also structural contradictions. The total inventory puts pressure on the absolute price level. - Overall, the upward space of iron ore prices is restricted by high inventory and the expectation of loose supply. At the same time, the marginal pressure of supply and demand is relatively controllable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the start - up of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: In January, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 30.7948 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.462 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. - Demand: In January, the estimated domestic daily average molten iron output was 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. - Inventory: At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: At the end of January, the price difference between PB - Super Special Powder was 114 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of -3 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - PB Powder was 90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +8 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - Jinbuba Powder was 149 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +12 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás Fines + Super Special Powder)/2 - PB Powder was -12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: At the end of January, the pellet feed ratio was 14.72%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.83%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - Profit: At the end of January, the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.39%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 4.0931 million tons, an increase of 0.5775 million tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 15.5916 million tons, an increase of 2.0312 million tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory at ports was 21.6211 million tons, an increase of 0.1745 million tons from the end of the previous month. - The inventory of Australian ore at ports was 77.9919 million tons, an increase of 8.5793 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of Brazilian ore at ports was 55.8397 million tons, a decrease of 0.8559 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 99.6859 million tons, an increase of 11.084 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41][44]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: In January, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. - Major Miners' Shipments: In January, the weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.9336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5347 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.5568 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1962 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 4.8542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1711 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0469 million tons. - Arrival and Non - Mainstream Imports: In January, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 21.9278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9236 million tons. - Domestic Mines: At the end of January, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.98%, an increase of 4.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 468,700 tons, an increase of 34,800 tons from the end of the previous month [50][53][56][59][62]. 3.5 Demand Side - In January, the estimated domestic molten iron output was 70.7857 million tons, with a daily average of 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. At the end of January, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the end of the previous month. - In January, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [67][70]. 3.6 Basis As of January 30, the estimated basis of the main contract of iron ore BRBF was 27.87 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.40% [75].