聚酯月报：商品情绪推动冲高，短期弱基本面下回落-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last month, PXN retraced due to lack of fundamental drivers and off - season pressure, while the sharp rise in crude oil compressed chemical valuations. Currently, PX load remains high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last month, PTA processing fees fluctuated at a high level. Subsequently, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [12]. - MEG: Last month, there was a game between weak fundamentals and geopolitics. After a sharp rebound, it returned to weak - fundamental trading. Currently, the overall load is still high, and the port stockpiling pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and there is a risk of rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - Market Review: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7,098 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan; the PX CFR price was 892 dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6 dollars. The basis was - 47 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan; the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan [11]. - Supply: At the end of the month, China's load was 89.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; Asia's load was 82.4%, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In January and February, the maintenance volume was relatively small, and the load was expected to remain stable [11]. - Demand: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [11]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there will be a small amount of stockpiling from January to February [11]. - Valuation and Cost: Last month, PXN decreased by 42 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 304 dollars. The naphtha crack spread increased by 12 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 93 dollars [11]. PTA - Market Review: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5,144 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58 yuan; the East China spot price was 5,100 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 4 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64 yuan [12]. - Supply: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [12]. - Demand: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [12]. - Inventory: As of January 30, the total social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. It is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [12]. - Profit: The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan year - on - year, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased by 127 yuan, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - Market Review: Prices rebounded and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3,745 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 101 yuan; the East China spot price was 3,649 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68 yuan. The basis was - 111 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21 yuan [13]. - Supply: At the end of the month, the EG load was 76.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The import volume in February is expected to decrease slightly [13]. - Demand: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [13]. - Inventory: As of February 2, the port inventory was 897,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons. Ports are expected to continue stockpiling [13]. - Valuation and Cost: Naphtha - based profit decreased by 419 yuan to - 1,175 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 190 to - 704 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit decreased by 87 yuan to 101 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - PX: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and trading volume was strong [32][35]. - PTA: The position and trading volume increased [44]. - MEG: The basis was weak, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The position decreased [54][62]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - New Capacity: Domestic new capacity includes Fuguidaohua (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - Supply: The January start - up rate was at a historical high [79]. - Import: Imports increased significantly in December [83]. - Inventory: Inventory continued to accumulate in December [86]. - Cost and Profit: PXN retraced, short - process profits decreased, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [89]. - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil: Gasoline performance was weak, the octane value showed certain trends, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread was weak, and the relative value of blending for oil decreased [96][99][103][106]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - New Capacity: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will add new capacities [122]. - Supply: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - Export: There are data on exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [127]. - Inventory: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - Profit: There are data on spot and disk processing fees and acetic acid costs [132]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - New Capacity: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Zhengdakai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I). In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [135]. - Supply: The overall load remained at a high level [138]. - Import: Imports increased significantly in December [140]. - Inventory: Due to high imports and the downstream off - season, ports continued to stockpile [150]. - Cost: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices were continuously weak, and ethane prices rose [157]. - Profit: The valuation was at a relatively low level [160]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - Polyester - New Capacity: There are new bottle - chip production facilities, and new capacities are planned for polyester filament, staple fiber, and chips in 2026 [175][176]. - Supply: The start - up rate has entered the off - season [178]. - Export: December export data increased year - on - year and month - on - month [184]. - Inventory: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [187]. - Sales - to - Production Ratio: There are data on the sales - to - production ratios of filament, staple fiber, and chips [194]. - Profit: The profit of filament improved significantly, and the profit of bottle - chips recovered [197][200]. - Terminal - Start - up: It has entered the off - season [203]. - Order and Inventory: Orders declined, inventory decreased, and raw material stockpiling was weak [209]. - Retail and Export: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing decreased, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high [213][216].