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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, affected by the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating widely at a high level. In the medium to long term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new season and the positive macro - expectations in the future, there is still room for cotton prices to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information - From January 22nd to January 29th, the US current - year cotton export sales were 57,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.8296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 202,600 tons. The export to China in that week was 8,300 tons, with cumulative exports of 105,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58,500 tons [9]. - As of the week of January 23rd, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [9]. - In January, the forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was adjusted down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was adjusted up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [9]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton year - on - year increase. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton year - on - year decrease [9]. - Fundamental Assessment - The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton, showing a strengthening trend. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, with little change. The spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton, with little change. The FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a relatively high domestic premium [10]. - The overall assessment suggested paying attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips, driven by the reduction of the new - season planting area and positive macro - expectations [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract over multiple years [27]. - Import Profit - The trends of the 1% tariff internal - external price difference and the sliding - scale duty internal - external price difference are shown [29]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread - The trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread and the 5 - 9 spread are presented [31]. - Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit - The trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit are shown [33]. - External Market Spread - The trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff are presented [37]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production - The processing and inspection quantity of cotton in China and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton are presented through charts [41]. - Cotton Import Volume - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of cotton in China are shown [43]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China are presented [46]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of cotton yarn in China are shown [48]. - Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [51]. - National Sales Progress - The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [54]. - Cotton Inventory - The weekly commercial inventory of cotton in China and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented [56]. - Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory - The cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning mills are shown [58]. 3.4 International Market Situation - US Planting Situation - The proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate are presented [62]. - US Production Situation - The bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton are shown [64]. - US Production and Planting Area - The production forecast and planting area of US cotton are presented [65]. - US Export Contract Progress - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year are shown [67]. - US Export Shipment Volume - The annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton are presented [69]. - US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton are shown [70]. - Brazil Production and Planting Area - The planting area and production of Brazilian cotton are presented [72]. - Brazil Export Volume - The export volume forecast and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton are shown [74]. - Brazil Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton are shown [75]. - India Production and Planting Area - The planting area and production of Indian cotton are presented [77]. - India Consumption and Import - Export - The consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton are shown [79]. - India Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [80].