氧化铝月报 2026/02/06：关注矿端潜在扰动，静待基本面拐点-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina smelting end's overcapacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although the recent capacity maintenance has increased, the overall output remains at a high level. The continuous rebound of alumina still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and delivery pressure of expired warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Futures price: As of February 6, the alumina index increased by 3.33% to 2,824 yuan/ton compared with the price on December 31. The overall commodity long - making atmosphere was active within the month. Coupled with the supply disturbance of Guinea's bauxite and the increase in capacity maintenance, the alumina futures price fluctuated upward. However, the continuous rebound of alumina still needs to focus on the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the introduction of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. The basis was deeply discounted in January. As of February 6, the spot price in Shandong was at a discount of 201 yuan/ton compared with the AO2603 contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts fluctuated in January, and as of February 6, the spread was - 68 yuan/ton [11] - Spot price: The alumina output within the month remained at a high level for the year, the inventory accumulation trend continued, and the spot price was under downward pressure. As of February 6, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2,685 yuan/ton, 2,740 yuan/ton, 2,635 yuan/ton, 2,555 yuan/ton, 2,615 yuan/ton, and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, down 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively compared with the beginning of January, and the decline rate narrowed compared with the previous period [11] - Inventory: As of January 30, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 394,000 tons to 5.565 million tons compared with the beginning of January. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 210,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 156,000 tons, and increased by 38,000 tons respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 61,100 tons to 218,000 tons compared with the beginning of January, and the inventory in the delivery warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 68,300 tons to 265,200 tons [11] 3.2 Supply - side - In December 2025, the alumina output was 8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.75% and a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The cumulative output in the first twelve months of 2025 was 90.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.06% compared with the previous year. Due to the shrinking profit, the number of alumina maintenance capacities has increased recently, but due to the gradual release of new capacities, the overall output still remains at a relatively high level. According to the alumina enterprise production plan, the planned production capacity of domestic alumina this year is 13.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in the first and fourth quarters [12][43][46] 3.3 Futures and Spot Ends - Spot price: The alumina output within the month remained at a high level for the year, the inventory accumulation trend continued, and the spot price was under downward pressure. As of February 6, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2,685 yuan/ton, 2,740 yuan/ton, 2,635 yuan/ton, 2,555 yuan/ton, 2,615 yuan/ton, and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, down 60 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively compared with the beginning of January, and the decline rate narrowed compared with the previous period [18] - Futures price and basis: As of February 6, the alumina index increased by 3.33% to 2,824 yuan/ton compared with the price on December 31. The overall commodity long - making atmosphere was active within the month. Coupled with the supply disturbance of Guinea's bauxite and the increase in capacity maintenance, the alumina futures price fluctuated upward. However, the continuous rebound of alumina still needs to focus on the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the introduction of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. The basis was deeply discounted in January. As of February 6, the spot price in Shandong was at a discount of 201 yuan/ton compared with the AO2603 contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts fluctuated in January, and as of February 6, the spread was - 68 yuan/ton [22] 3.4 Raw Material End - Bauxite price: As of February 6, the prices of some domestic bauxite fluctuated downward within the month. The prices of bauxite in Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The CIF price of Guinea's bauxite decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 61 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia decreased by 9 US dollars/ton to 58 US dollars/ton. Currently, the bauxite shipment from Guinea is still at a high level, the sea - floating inventory continues to rise, the bauxite surplus pattern intensifies, and the port inventory is still at a high level. It is expected that the bauxite price will fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to the support of the CIF price of Guinea's bauxite at 60 US dollars/ton. In the middle of the month, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area of Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipment are normal [26] - Bauxite production and import: In January 2026, China's bauxite production was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. In December 2025, the bauxite import was 14.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32%. The shipment rebounded after the rainy season [28][30][33] - Bauxite inventory: As of January 31, 2026, the bauxite shipment volume of major countries in the world remained at a relatively high level. The latest data of China's bauxite port inventory was 24.19 million tons, with a slight inventory reduction but still sufficient reserves. In January, China's bauxite inventory increased by 1.64 million tons, and the total inventory reached 57.9 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years, and the enterprise's ore inventory was sufficient. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 240,000 tons in January, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 160,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [36][40] 3.5 Import and Export - In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. The opening of the previous import window drove the continuation of monthly net imports. The import volume decreased from 2.32 million tons in the previous month to 2.28 million tons, and the export volume increased from 1.68 million tons to 2.1 million tons. The total net export in the first twelve months of 2025 was 1.35 million tons. As of February 6, the FOB price in Australia decreased by 4 US dollars/ton to 304 US dollars/ton compared with the beginning of January, and the import profit and loss was - 75 yuan/ton. The prices at home and abroad decreased synchronously, and the current import window remained closed [12][51][54] 3.6 Demand - side - In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.05% and a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The total production in the first twelve months of 2025 was 44.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.71%. In terms of operating capacity, in December 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.69 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in December decreased by 0.46% to 96.76% [58][61] 3.7 Inventory - As of January 30, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 394,000 tons to 5.565 million tons compared with the beginning of January. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 210,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 156,000 tons, and increased by 38,000 tons respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 61,100 tons to 218,000 tons compared with the beginning of January, and the inventory in the delivery warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 68,300 tons to 265,200 tons [11][66][69]