橡胶月报：橡胶：大幅震荡后将回归基本面-20260206

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the rubber market, analyzing factors such as cost, supply, demand, and price trends [1] - It also provides an assessment of rubber products like RU and NR, and offers trading strategy recommendations [15] Group 2: Core Views - Rubber prices are expected to experience significant fluctuations in the short - term due to macro - economic factors, and then gradually return to the fundamentals of demand and supply [10][11] - The market logic involves bullish sentiment driven by China's winter storage expectations and policy - related positives, while bearish sentiment stems from weak demand and potential negative impacts of tariff policies [13] - The demand for rubber is currently flat, with tire factories facing inventory pressure, and supply expectations vary, with some predicting a small increase in production [13] Group 3: Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Reasons for rubber price fluctuations: factors include geopolitical tensions, changes in Fed personnel, and macro - capital sentiment. The price may be limited in its decline due to capital allocation to commodities and may have an upward potential due to state reserve purchase expectations [10][11] - Key points for rubber RU: after fluctuations, it will return to the fundamentals of weak demand and increasing inventory [12] - Trading strategy: consider a neutral approach in the short - term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on NR and short on RU2609 for potential band trading [13][15] Group 4: Cost End - The cost of rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht for cup rubber. In Hainan, China, the cost of whole latex is around 13,500 yuan, and in Yunnan, it is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [48] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of rubber to other commodities such as crude oil and copper shows certain trends [22][30] - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [27] Group 6: Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities such as copper, Brent crude oil, and others generally show normal trends without significant special values [37][40] Group 7: Demand End - The operating rate of tire factories' all - steel tires is 60.7% (- 1.74%), and there is inventory pressure on all - steel tires [13] - The demand from the mid - stream, such as truck and commercial vehicle sales, is gradually improving, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly later [56][59] Group 8: Supply End - The rubber production in December 2025 showed different trends in various regions. For example, Thailand's production decreased year - on - year, while Vietnam's increased [98] - The export of rubber also had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions in December 2025 [99] - The data on rubber imports are less available after 2021, reducing the analyzability of imports [63] Group 9: Industry - related Data and Forecasts - The capacity of butadiene and ethylene is expected to increase in the coming years. The butadiene capacity will follow the increase of refining projects, and the supply pressure of butadiene will decrease in 2026 compared to 2025 [117][120][123] - The price of butadiene rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene, and the balance of supply and demand depends on the progress of downstream supporting projects [123]