股指月报：节前资金避险，市场波动可能加剧-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas liquidity: The nomination of Wash has triggered hawkish expectations, and the divergence in expectations for US monetary policy has intensified, suppressing the risk appetite of the global capital market and causing increased volatility in US stocks and precious metals [11]. - Domestic market: Liquidity is tightening seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, so short - term observation is recommended. In the long - term, the policy support attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. - Trading strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to the medium - to - low valuation level and long - term discount of IM; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new round of interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important news: The US plans to launch a $12 billion mineral reserve program; the 2026 No. 1 Central Document promotes the combination of AI and agriculture; Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT - 5.3 Codex are released; the traditional Chinese medicine industry policy is implemented; the central bank conducts an 800 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 4, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [11]. - Economic and corporate earnings: In December 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.13% month - on - month; the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.5%; social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan; exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [11]. - Interest rate and credit environment: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate both declined slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened approaching the year - end [11]. - Trading strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Stock index performance: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.27% to 4065.58, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11% to 13906.73, etc. [16]. - Futures contract performance: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, declined to varying degrees [17]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic data: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%; in January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; in December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; the investment growth rate was - 3.8% [35][38][41]. - Corporate earnings: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - Interest rate: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate trends are presented [48]. - Credit environment: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.2%, and the social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan [60]. 5. Capital Flow - Inflow: This month, about 110.4 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 139.9 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching 2.664067 trillion yuan, a new high [67][68]. - Outflow: This month, major shareholder share sales remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 10 [72]. 6. Valuation - P/E ratio (TTM): The P/E ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 11.64, the CSI 300 is 14.08, the CSI 500 is 36.92, and the CSI 1000 is 49.18 [77]. - P/B ratio (LF): The P/B ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 1.28, the CSI 300 is 1.48, the CSI 500 is 2.54, and the CSI 1000 is 2.63 [77].