百胜中国：同店增长环比提速，多元门店形态贡献增量-20260206

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with operating profit of $187 million, up 25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $140 million, up 24% [2] - For the full year 2025, the company reported total revenue of $11.797 billion, a 4% increase, operating profit of $1.290 billion, an 11% increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $929 million, a 2% increase [2] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, maintaining the same level as in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales and Store Expansion - The company has seen same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a net addition of 587 stores in Q4 2025 [3] - For the full year, system sales and same-store sales increased by 4% and 1% respectively, with a total of 1,706 net new stores added [3] - KFC's same-store sales grew by 3% in Q4 2025, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales increased by 1% [3] New Store Formats and Innovations - The company is expanding its product offerings and store formats, with K Coffee and KPRO showing rapid growth [4] - KPRO is expected to double its store count to over 400 by 2026, while Pizza Hut has successfully entered around 100 new towns with its WOW store model [4] - The introduction of the "Twin Stars" model, placing KFC and Pizza Hut stores adjacent to each other, aims to penetrate lower-tier markets at a lower cost [4] Cost Management and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the company's operating profit margin improved to 6.6%, and restaurant profit margin to 13.0%, benefiting from streamlined operations and favorable raw material prices [5] - The cost of food and packaging decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, while labor costs increased by 1.2 percentage points [5] - Delivery sales accounted for 53% of total sales, an increase of 11 percentage points [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are adjusted to $12.522 billion, $13.264 billion, and $13.983 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $1.015 billion, $1.127 billion, and $1.228 billion [6] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 16 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [6]