双焦月报：外围扰动偏多但商品情绪整体承压，双焦盘面预计继续呈现震荡走势-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the view that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. However, in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of the non - ferrous and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [20]. - The weekly static supply - demand structure of coking coal has become looser due to the gradual recovery of supply after the New Year's Day, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the slow resumption of hot metal production. Coke also shows a relatively loose situation. Although downstream players are still replenishing inventory, the inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is low. Therefore, the inventory replenishment is unlikely to drive up prices [20]. - Although the coking coal price has occasional abnormal increases driven by external disturbances and capital, the short - term upward impetus is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is insufficient; on the other hand, the market sentiment does not support a strong upward trend. Also, considering the time node, there is a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival, unless there are sudden supply - side incidents. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [20][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review - In January, the coking coal futures price showed a volatile rebound, with a monthly increase of 51.5 yuan/ton or +4.63%. Last week, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 14.5 yuan/ton or - 1.15%. The overseas coal - related disturbances, though not directly affecting the domestic short - term fundamentals, have a positive impact on market sentiment. Meanwhile, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals have amplified the volatility of coking coal futures [11][14]. - In January, the coke futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a monthly increase of 31.5 yuan/ton or +1.86%. Last week, it also showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 20.5 yuan/ton or - 1.19%. The price movement mainly depends on the cost - side coking coal fluctuations [18]. - Monthly Key Points Summary - Spot Price and Basis: Different types of coking coal and coke have different price changes and basis situations. For example, Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal is at 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a certain price change compared to the previous period, and the basis shows a premium to the futures [19]. - Variety Positions: The current position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is also abnormally high and increasing, so the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases needs to be watched [19]. - Domestic Output: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased by 1.62 tons month - on - month due to the Spring Festival holiday. However, the cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the misalignment of the Lunar New Year) [19]. - Overseas Imports: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [19]. - Demand: The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased by 0.53 tons month - on - month. The independent coking plant's coking profit is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate remained stable. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 41.08 tons month - on - month but increased by 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory increased by 89.03 tons month - on - month but decreased by 386.97 tons year - on - year [19]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally looser [20]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [20]. - Summary and Outlook: In the short term, the upward impetus for coking coal is weak. After the Spring Festival, there is a risk of price correction. However, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October in 2026 [20][22]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Coking Coal Spot Price: As of February 5, 2026, different types of coking coal, such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and Mongolian coking coal, have different price changes compared to the previous period and different basis situations with the futures [26][28][31]. - Coke Spot Price: As of February 5, 2026, the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke have changed compared to the previous period, and their basis with the futures also shows different situations [37]. - Coking Coal Basis and Spread: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal is - 76 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is in contango [44][47]. - Coke Basis and Spread: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coke is - 66 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is also in contango [50][53]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - Variety Positions: As of February 5, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal is 647,700 lots, an increase of 30,800 lots month - on - month, and it is still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke is 39,000 lots, an increase of 400 lots month - on - month. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is abnormally high and increasing [62][63]. - Variety Ratios: This week, the ratio of JM/I increased by 0.07, and HC/JM decreased by 0.06, indicating that coking coal performed slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, JM/I is still at a low historical level, and the valuation of coking coal relative to iron ore is low. The ratio of J/I increased by 0.11, HC/J decreased by 0.04, and JM/J remained basically stable, indicating that coke was slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, J/I is also at a low historical level, and the valuation of coke relative to iron ore is low [69][72]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Domestic Coking Coal Output: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines is 75.45 tons, a decrease of 1.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal - washing plants is 26.31 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output increased by about 240 tons or +27.3% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [77][79]. - Imported Coking Coal: As of January 31, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased by 328.19 tons or +5.78% year - on - year. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased by 144.58 tons or - 14.03% year - on - year. China's imports of coking coal from Russia and Canada increased in 2025, while imports from the United States decreased significantly due to tariffs [82][85][88]. - Coke Output: As of February 5, 2026, the total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants is 10.38 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output decreased by about 71.19 tons or - 1.52% year - on - year. The coking profit of independent coking plants is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased month - on - month [94][97]. - Downstream Steel Industry: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.39%, remaining stable month - on - month. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil are - 164 yuan/ton and - 107 yuan/ton respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 760.66 tons, a decrease of 41.08 tons month - on - month but an increase of 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory is 2439.65 tons, an increase of 89.03 tons month - on - month but a decrease of 386.97 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [100][106][110]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is marginally looser. The estimated daily average demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.72 tons, still slightly lower than the daily average coke output, and the supply - demand structure of coke is also marginally looser [112]. 3.5 Inventory - Inventory Overview: As of February 5, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors such as mines, coking plants, steel mills, and ports. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [115][116].