钢材月报：多空因素交织下，黑色系仍处震荡区间-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was still in a low - range, but slightly improved compared to the previous period. Steel prices maintained a low - level volatile operation. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit repair space for steel mills was limited. The production side continued to be cautious. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, slightly up from the previous month, but still in the low - profit range [11]. - In terms of supply, in January 2026, the output of rebar was 9.6894 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 180,000 tons (+1.94%) and a month - on - month increase of 31.98%. The output of hot - rolled coils was 15.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 398,900 tons (-2.54%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.85%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.2839 million tons, remaining at a moderately low level. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival and limited profit repair, steel mills' production was still cautious, but due to the low base in the previous period, the output of finished products increased month - on - month. The output of rebar increased against the seasonal trend, and the output of plates was relatively neutral, with the overall supply pressure easing [11]. - Regarding demand, in January 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar was 9.2766 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5974 million tons (+20.80%) and a month - on - month increase of 11.58%. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.5464 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 630,000 tons (+4.24%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.17%. Overall, the demand side improved significantly year - on - year and showed seasonal repair characteristics month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily driven by the low base and concentrated project rush, but the overall real - estate investment was still weak, restricting the sustainability of demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, with a slight year - on - year increase supported by the resilience of the manufacturing industry and exports, without obvious weakening [11]. - In terms of inventory, as of the end of January 2026, the inventory of rebar was 4.7553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.5558 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons (-8.50%). Structurally, the inventory of building materials decreased significantly year - on - year, and the inventory level of plates also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, with the overall inventory pressure continuing to ease. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken again, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down, but the low - inventory pattern year - on - year supported prices [11]. - Currently, the black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. On the one hand, the domestic policy tone remains marginally loose, providing support for demand expectations. On the other hand, the uncertainty of overseas monetary policy has increased, and market volatility has intensified. In the short term, the black - series will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, and the trend opportunities are not yet clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery rhythm of plate demand, and the marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was in a low - range but slightly improved. Steel prices were volatile at a low level, and the cost of raw materials was resilient, limiting the profit repair space. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, still in the low - profit range [11]. - Supply: Rebar output increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while hot - rolled coil output decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The daily average output of hot metal was at a moderately low level. Steel mills' production was cautious, but the output of finished products increased month - on - month due to the low base [11]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily, but real - estate investment restricted its sustainability. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased year - on - year. The inventory of building materials decreased significantly, and the inventory of plates also decreased. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down [11]. - Summary: The black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will operate in a range - bound manner, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, plate demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products in different regions and contract months, as well as the price differences between different regions and different steel products [23][25][28]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the盘面 profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the profit of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [78][81][83]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of steel billets and other related products [91][94][104]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average hot metal and crude steel output, the price of billets, the price difference between rebar and billets, the price of scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel [110][113][115]. 3.5 Supply End - Charts show the output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [130][132][135]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - Demand: Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [142][145][149]. - Import - Export: Charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [155][157][160].