PVC月报：预期与现实博弈，PVC震荡向上-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last month, PVC fluctuated upward. The cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC led to a short - term rush to export. Against the backdrop of a strong commodity atmosphere, the market traded on the expectation of production cuts under low valuations. - Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a moderately low level. However, the reduction in supply is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestically, demand is gradually entering the off - season, putting pressure on the demand side. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred a short - term rush to export, which is the only short - term support for the fundamentals. - The cost of calcium carbide has increased, while caustic soda is weak. Overall, in the face of strong domestic supply and weak demand, poor domestic demand makes it difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply, and the fundamentals are poor. Short - term expectations of electricity prices, capacity clearance, and the sentiment of the rush to export support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals are affecting the expectations of the industrial pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,930 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 785 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has declined again to a historical low, while the profit from ethylene production has rebounded significantly, and the overall valuation pressure is relatively small [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. Among them, the utilization rate of the calcium carbide method is 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%; the utilization rate of the ethylene method is 75.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. The amount of maintenance last month was still small, the average capacity utilization rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still high [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, the export volume in December rebounded slightly. The export tax rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the market has entered a short - term rush - to - export stage, with the expected export volume increasing significantly. The seasonal decline in the start - up of the three major downstream industries: the pipe load is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%; the film load is 62.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3%; the profile load is 29.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The overall downstream load is 41.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The overall downstream start - up has gradually declined and is gradually entering the off - season [11]. - Inventory: The in - factory inventory is 28.8 tons, a month - on - month reduction of 2.2 tons; the social inventory is 122.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15 tons; the overall inventory is 151.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.9 tons; the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. Even though the short - term rush to export brings additional demand, it is difficult to reverse the inventory accumulation trend during the domestic off - season [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The content mainly presents multiple charts, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the PVC spot basis, the PVC 5 - 9 spread, the PVC active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but there is no text summary and analysis [15][18][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The content shows multiple charts related to inventory and profit, such as the in - factory inventory of PVC calcium carbide method, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventories, warehouse receipts, the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, the profit of PVC calcium carbide method, the profit of PVC ethylene method, and the profit of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide, but there is no text summary and analysis [30][31][39]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have increased. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide has risen, while the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi has declined. The report also presents charts of calcium carbide prices, inventory, and start - up rate, as well as the prices of other raw materials such as liquid chlorine, 32% liquid caustic soda, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but there is no text summary and analysis [45][49][52]. 3.5 Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC production capacity shows growth and fluctuations. In 2025, a total of 250 tons of new PVC production capacity was put into operation, including both calcium carbide and ethylene methods. The start - up rates of PVC, calcium carbide method, and ethylene method, as well as the weekly production volume, are also presented in the charts, but there is no text summary and analysis [59][60][63]. 3.6 Demand Side - The start - up rates of PVC downstream industries such as pipes, films, and profiles have shown a seasonal decline. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India are presented in the charts, as well as the pre - sales volume, the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, and the PVC industry chain and mind map, but there is no text summary and analysis [73][75][84].