工业硅&多晶硅月报 2026/02/06：供需双降，工业硅关注大厂开工情况，多晶硅偏弱震荡，观望为主-20260206

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In February, the industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is expected to contract significantly due to the planned halting of production at a large factory in the northwest and the full shutdown of production enterprises in Sichuan. Although the balance sheet is expected to improve to some extent, the upward drive is insufficient in the context of a weak commodity market atmosphere, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the duration of the large factory's shutdown and the price adjustment caused by market sentiment [14]. - For polysilicon, in February, a leading enterprise will maintain full - scale shutdown, and the supply will continue to decrease. The silicon wafer production schedule is expected to remain stable, and the high inventory in the silicon material segment is expected to be slightly reduced. The spot price game continues, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot price after the Spring Festival [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industrial Silicon - As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a flat month - on - month change; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, and the discounted futures price was 8,850 yuan/ton, also with a flat month - on - month change [13][22]. - In January 2026, the industrial silicon output was 320,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% [13][30]. - The cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,718.00 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [13][45]. - The inventory at the end of January was 509,100 tons, including 250,400 tons in factory inventory, 189,000 tons in market inventory, and 69,700 tons in registered warehouse receipts [13][48]. - Polysilicon - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.3 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 yuan/kg [16][25]. - In January, the polysilicon output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.78% [13][16][53]. - The production cost was 44,102.42 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 6,766.00 yuan/ton, with a profit decline [16][62]. - The inventory at the end of January was 332,100 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu and 333,000 tons according to SMM, with factory inventory accumulating [15][17][59]. - Downstream Products - In January, the silicon wafer output was 45.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.03GW and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15% [15][65]. - The battery cell output was 41.44GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.32GW and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01%; the photovoltaic battery operating rate was 42.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.59 percentage points [15][73]. - The component output was 35.2GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5GW and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%; the component operating rate was 34.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4 percentage points [15][82]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon - The report provides charts of industrial silicon spot and futures prices and the basis of the main contract, showing the price trends from 2022 to 2026 [21]. - Polysilicon - The report provides charts of polysilicon spot and futures prices and the basis of the main contract, showing the price trends from 2024 to 2026 [24]. 3. Industrial Silicon - Total Output - In January 2026, the industrial silicon output was 320,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% [30]. - Output in Main Production Areas - The report provides charts of industrial silicon output in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu from 2021 to 2026 [32][34][37]. - Production Cost - As of January 30, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas was flat month - on - month, and the silica price was stable month - on - month. The silicon - coal price in Xinjiang decreased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,718.00 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 8,960.00 yuan/ton [42][45]. - Visible Inventory - At the end of January, the industrial silicon inventory was 509,100 tons, including 250,400 tons in factory inventory, 189,000 tons in market inventory, and 69,700 tons in registered warehouse receipts [48]. 4. Polysilicon - Output - In January, the polysilicon output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.78% [53]. - Operating Rate and Production Schedule - The operating rate in January was 34.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17 percentage points. The expected output in February was 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease [56]. - Inventory - At the end of January, the polysilicon inventory was 332,100 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu and 333,000 tons according to SMM, with factory inventory accumulating [59]. - Cost and Profit - The production cost was 44,102.42 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 6,766.00 yuan/ton, with a profit decline [62]. - Silicon Wafer - In January, the silicon wafer output was 45.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.03GW and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The inventory at the end of January was 27.29GW, a month - on - month increase. The predicted output in February was 45.31GW, basically stable month - on - month [65][68]. - Battery Cell - In January, the battery cell output was 41.44GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.32GW and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01%; the operating rate was 42.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.59 percentage points. The inventory at the end of January was 9.17GW. The expected output in February was 36.7GW, a continued month - on - month decline [73][76]. - Component - In January, the component output was 35.2GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5GW and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%; the operating rate was 34.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.4 percentage points. The inventory at the end of January was 26.1GW. The expected output in February was 29.8GW, a continued decline from January [82][85]. 5. Organic Silicon - Output - In January, the DMC output was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 18.16% [92]. - Price and Profit - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was 1,859.38 yuan/ton [95]. - Inventory - At the end of January, the DMC inventory was 40,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,500 tons [98]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - Aluminum Alloy - As of January 30, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,780 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,960 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 24,290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,780 yuan/ton. In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 19.297 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55% [103]. - At the end of January, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.9% [106]. - Export - In 2025 from January to December, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [109].