国债月报：风险偏好回落，债市延续震荡-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The economic recovery's internal driving force remains unstable, with the January official manufacturing PMI falling below expectations and the economy's upward foundation being unsteady. There is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after structural interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, and the long - term strategy is to buy on the dips [11][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy: In January, the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, lower than expected. Production and demand declined, and enterprise profit margins may be under pressure. The export orders decreased, large enterprises were in the expansion range, and small and medium - sized enterprises were in the contraction range. The service industry in the non - manufacturing sector declined due to the off - season, and the construction industry's prosperity significantly dropped. Overseas, the US liquidity improved, and the market postponed the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut to mid - year. The central bank held a meeting to develop various types of finance and support key areas. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.3, maintaining an expansion trend. The Australian central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points [11] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 10055 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases this week, with 17615 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6560 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [13] - Interest Rates: The latest 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.82%, up 0.59 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was 2.27%, down 1.25 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.21%, down 5.00 BP week - on - week [13] - Summary: The January official PMI data showed a decline in both supply and demand, and the economic recovery's momentum needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain a stable capital situation. The bond market's allocation power is strong, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [13] - Fundamental Assessment: The economic fundamentals need further improvement, and the net basis is low. The bond market's downward adjustment space is limited, and the long - term strategy is to buy on the dips [14] - Trading Strategy Recommendation: The recommended strategy is to buy on the dips for a 6 - month period, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult credit improvement [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - T Contract: Presented the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the T - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [18] - TL Contract: Showed the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TL - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [23] - TF Contract: Displayed the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TF - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [26] - TS Contract: Demonstrated the closing price, annualized premium, settlement price, and net basis trends of the TS - contract's current - quarter and main contracts [28] - TS and TF Positions: Presented the closing price and position volume trends of the TS and TF contracts [33] - T and TL Positions: Showed the closing price and position volume trends of the T and TL contracts [38] 3.3 Main Economic Data 3.3.1 Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In Q3, 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding expectations. In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [43] - Manufacturing PMI Sub - items: In January 2026, the manufacturing supply and demand weakened. The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, and new orders decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2 [44][49] - Price Index: In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI, core CPI, and PPI all increased by 0.2% [52] - Export Data: In December 2025, China's export data was stronger than expected, with exports increasing by 6.5% year - on - year and imports increasing by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate [55] - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In December 2025, the industrial added - value growth rate was 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points [58] - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 17.2%. In December 2025, the month - on - month price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year price was - 6.1% [62] - Real Estate Construction and Sales: In December 2025, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 587700,000 square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.4%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6598900,000 square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The cumulative year - on - year data of the completion end decreased by 18.16%, and the new - home sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was weak [65][68] 3.3.2 Foreign Economy - US Economy: In Q3 2025, the US GDP at current prices was 3109.5 billion US dollars, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 4.30%. In December 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.0% month - on - month. In November 2025, the US durable goods orders were 323.7 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. In January 2026, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 53.8 [71][74][77] - EU Economy: In Q3 2025, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter [77] - Eurozone Economy: In December 2025, the Eurozone CPI increased by 2% year - on - year. In January 2026, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, and the service industry PMI was 51.9 [80] 3.4 Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In December 2025, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The M1 growth rate declined due to the base effect. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan. The new RMB loans were 9700 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 800 billion yuan [85] - Social Financing Sub - items: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, and the financing of the real - economy sector was stable. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors was 6.1%, and the government bond growth rate was 17.1% [88] - MLF and Reverse Repurchases: In January 2026, the MLF balance was 6950 billion yuan, with a net MLF injection of 700 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 10055 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, with 17615 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6560 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [91] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: Provided the latest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [94] - Interest Rate Trends: Presented the trends of Treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy [98][99][103] - Fed Target Rate and Exchange Rates: Showed the trends of the Fed's target rate, the USD/RMB exchange rate, and the US dollar index [105]