2026年02月06日农产品日报-20260206

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Egg [1] - Bearish: Live Pig [1] - Neutral: Soybean [1] Core Views - Multiple factors are influencing the agricultural product market, including policy, international trade, and macro - economic factors. Different agricultural products show various trends, with most being in a state of oscillation in the short - term [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - CBOT soybeans are strong due to improved export expectations. China's central policy promotes soybean yield and protects planting profits. Policy - led soybean auctions increase market supply, with a high - price transaction average of 4298 yuan/ton and a premium of 210 - 310 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and macro risks need attention [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Reuters predicts that Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields will increase in the 2025/26 season compared to January data, while US soybean ending stocks will decrease. After Sino - US leaders' communication, the expected purchase volume of US soybeans by China has increased. The 2 - month USDA supply - demand report will be released on February 11, 2026, and the short - term Dalian soybean meal may continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Gold and silver volatility increases, domestic soybean oil reduces positions and prices oscillate downward. Although CBOT soybeans are strong, Brazilian soybean premiums fall, and soybean meal rebounds, so domestic soybean oil is weaker than the US market. US soybean oil is strong due to favorable biomass diesel policies. The 26/27 US soybean supply - demand balance pressure may decrease year - on - year, and there is a high probability of inventory reduction, so caution is needed for the upward oscillation of US soybean oil and soybeans [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market oscillates. Oilseed import expectations improve, and Sino - US, Sino - Canadian, and US - Canadian economic and trade relations are important for rapeseed trade. The US biofuel policy ensures the stability of Canadian rapeseed oil exports. A 0.7 - million - ton rapeseed oil trading event is fully transacted. Coastal mills start to crush Australian seeds, and the incremental supply eases market concerns. The short - term rapeseed trend is oscillatory [6] Corn - Northeast and North Port corn spot prices are firm, with a 5 - yuan/ton increase in Jinzhou Port's closing price. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises reduce purchase prices. After the Spring Festival, ground - stored corn may be concentrated on the market, and the short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [7] Live Pig - The live pig near - month 03 contract hits a new low, other contracts decline slightly, and funds reduce positions. Spot prices stabilize slightly, and slaughter volume increases near the Spring Festival. The current industry's slaughter weight is high, and the second - fattening pen utilization rate may continue to decline. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply of sows and piglets, pig prices are expected to hit a low in the first half of next year [8] Egg - Egg futures' decline slows, funds reduce positions and shift from near - term to far - term contracts. Spot prices are stable in some provinces and decline in others. January's chick - replenishment volume shows a significant month - on - month improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Egg prices in the first half of 2026 have upward - repair momentum. After the Spring Festival spot low, a long - position strategy for egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 can be considered [9]