玻璃中游库存较高纯碱供应处于高位

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Glass should be treated with an oscillating and slightly bullish mindset, with the glass index ranging from 1010 - 1160 [7] - For纯碱, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the纯碱 index ranging from 1120 - 1270 [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Price - As of January 30, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to the end of December; in Central China, it was 1020 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The glass prices in mainstream markets are running strongly [13] Supply - After the cold - repair, the float glass production in January decreased, but new production lines were ignited in the second half of the month. The current supply decline has improved the supply - demand pattern, supporting prices. Future supply changes depend on price impacts on cold - repair expectations [19] Demand - Real estate completion in December 2025 was still at a low level year - on - year, and the sales situation improved but was still at a low level. Automobile production and sales in December 2025 both decreased month - on - month. The year - end rush - to - work demand weakened month - on - month. Although the glass supply decline stimulated mid - and downstream restocking demand in January, the post - holiday apparent demand is expected to be weak due to high mid - stream inventory and limited demand recovery [23][26][30] Inventory - In January, the glass factory inventory decreased, and the mid - stream inventory continued to rise. During the Spring Festival holiday, the glass factory inventory will increase, and the high mid - stream inventory will have a negative impact on post - holiday spot prices and suppress speculative demand [34] Profit and Cost - The glass costs using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels changed little, and the glass profits of the three production methods showed mixed trends. The profit of glass using natural gas as fuel increased from - 186.4 yuan/ton to - 155.12 yuan/ton; that using coal decreased from - 21.88 yuan/ton to - 68.5 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke increased from - 7.21 yuan/ton to 1.07 yuan/ton [38] Basis and Spread - As of January 30, the glass 05 basis was - 36, a month - on - month increase of 51 compared to the end of December; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 111, a month - on - month decrease of 7. The spot price was strong, the futures price was volatile, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market is optimistic about the supply - demand pattern of the far - month contracts [42] 纯碱 Price - As of December 31, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 880 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the market price of heavy soda ash was 1164 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton. The mainstream market light soda ash price is running weakly, and the heavy soda ash price is running strongly [48] Supply - In January, after the alkali plant maintenance ended, the production of soda ash returned to a high level, and new production capacity will be put into operation in the first quarter of this year, with long - term supply pressure. The current high supply has a strong downward driving force on prices. The impact of price on alkali plant maintenance willingness needs to be focused on, and the production in February is expected to remain at a high level [52] Demand - In January, the production of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash weakened, while the demand for light soda ash was relatively stable. In February, the impact of float glass price on supply needs to be noted. The low price of soda ash increased the consumption of soda ash by glass factories, which has a certain positive impact on demand [58] Import and Export - In December 2025, the import volume of soda ash was 3473 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3221 tons; the export volume was 232,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,400 tons. Domestic supply - demand is loose, and exports are expected to remain at a high level, alleviating the inventory pressure of alkali plants [62] Inventory - Before the festival, downstream restocking and increased soda ash consumption per ton of glass led to a small increase in alkali plant inventory. In February, with high supply, the alkali plant inventory is expected to further accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices [65] Cost - In January, the cost of soda ash remained stable. The supply concentration of alkali plants is high, and the cost support of the light soda ash联产 method in East China is around 1210 yuan/ton [69] Profit - The price of soda ash was strong, the cost was stable, and the profit of alkali plants was weak. The light soda ash gross profit of the ammonia - soda process in North China decreased from - 57.4 yuan/ton to - 100.35 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash gross profit decreased from - 137.4 yuan/ton to - 160.35 yuan/ton. The light soda ash gross profit of the 联碱 method in East China decreased from - 28.5 yuan/ton to - 34.5 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash gross profit decreased from - 88.5 yuan/ton to - 94.5 yuan/ton [72] Basis and Spread - As of January 30, the 05 contract basis of soda ash was - 40, a month - on - month increase of 47 compared to the end of December; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 62, a month - on - month increase of 3. The spot price was strong, the futures price was volatile, the basis and spread strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market is optimistic about the supply - demand pattern of the far - month contracts [76]