白糖月报：糖价震荡，维持观望-20260206

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "wait - and - see" rating for the sugar industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it is recommended to wait and see for now [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry News: - As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons the previous week [9] - StoneX expects the global sugar market to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season, with an estimated surplus of 2.9 million tons [9] - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season has reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [9] - In the second half of December 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. Sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [9] - In December, the national sugar production was 2.63 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. In December, the sugar sales volume was 1.22 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales volume was 1.57 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [9] - Viewpoints and Strategies: Wait and see for now. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In the domestic market, the supply of imported sugar sources is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited [9] - Fundamental Assessment: - The basis is 82 yuan/ton, the monthly spread of Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 is - 16 yuan/ton, the production - sales area spread is - 90 yuan/ton, the raw - white sugar spread is 90 US dollars/ton, the sugar - alcohol spread is - 3.09 cents/pound. The cost of the March contract within the quota is 4,007 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 4,971 yuan/ton [10] - The short - term recommendation is to wait and see [10] - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis: The report provides the price trend chart of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi and the basis chart of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - Spot - to - Spot Spread: It includes the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spread, Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread charts [20][21][23] - Domestic - Foreign Spread: It shows the charts of out - of - quota spot import profit and out - of - quota on - disk import profit [24][25] - Raw Sugar Monthly Spread: It provides the spread charts of raw sugar 5 - 7, raw sugar 3 - 5, London white sugar 3 - 5, and London white sugar 5 - 8 [26][27][30] - Raw - White Sugar Spread: It shows the spread charts of raw - white sugar 5 - 5 and raw - white sugar 3 - 3 [32][33] - Raw Sugar Spot Premium and Discount: It provides the premium and discount charts of Brazilian and Thai raw sugar [34][35] - Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuation: It shows the chart of the production advantage of raw sugar compared with Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio chart [37][38] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - National Production: The report provides the monthly and cumulative sugar production charts in China [42][43] - Sugar Imports: It includes the monthly and annual cumulative sugar import volume charts, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volume charts of syrup and premixed powder [45][46][48] - National Sales Volume: It provides the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress charts [50][51] - National Industrial Inventory: It shows the monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory charts [53][54] 3.4 International Market Situation - Production in Central - Southern Brazil: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume charts in central - southern Brazil [58][59][61] - India's Production: It shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in India [63][64] - Thailand's Production: It provides the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production volume charts in Thailand [66][67] - Brazil's Shipment Volume: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [69][70]